AKSHAR GROUP · Cross-market review: from macro to crypto assets

Summary

World: UST 10Y 5.277% and the dollar (DXY 101.93, −0.17% on the day) set tight financial conditions, while the stock market is calm (VIX 15.3). Transmission to crypto runs mainly through: rates, stock-market risk appetite, stablecoin liquidity; BTC correlation with Nasdaq 0.58, with DXY −0.27; BTC ETFs +82.9 $m over 5 days. Crypto assets: BTC 84,871 (+0.38% over 24h, daily range 84,504–84,998), 14 of 15 radar assets rose over the day; base case — consolidation with a downside bias.

1. World: rates, dollar, liquidity

Metric	Value	Δ day	Δ 5 sessions	As of
UST 10Y, %	5.277	+4.0 bp	+9.3 bp	close Oct 2, Yahoo
UST 2Y, %	4.780	−10.0 bp	−9.0 bp	Oct 1, FRED
10Y−2Y spread, bp	50	—	—	Oct 1, calc.
10Y real yield (TIPS), %	2.88	−5.0 bp	+3.0 bp	Oct 1, FRED
DXY	101.93	−0.17%	+0.95%	Oct 2, Yahoo
USDJPY	157.83	−0.06%	+0.23%	Oct 4, Yahoo
EURUSD	1.1257	+0.07%	−1.06%	Oct 2, Yahoo
Fed net liquidity, $bn	5,783	—	+13 $bn/wk	Sep 30, FRED (WALCL−TGA−RRP)
HY spread (OAS), %	3.24	+12.0 bp	+44.0 bp	Oct 1, FRED
S&P 500	7,722.72	+0.73%	−0.27%	Oct 2, Yahoo
Nasdaq Composite	27,190.86	+1.19%	+0.45%	Oct 2, Yahoo
VIX	15.31	−1.1 pts	+0.4 pts	Oct 2, Yahoo
Gold, $/oz	4,162.30	−0.95%	−3.68%	Oct 2, Yahoo
WTI crude, $	91.11	−1.90%	−1.41%	Oct 2, Yahoo
Brent crude, $	102.25	−0.06%	−1.98%	Oct 2, Yahoo
Copper, $/lb	6.55	+1.03%	−2.19%	Oct 2, Yahoo
Nikkei 225	68,309.46	−0.94%	+2.93%	Oct 2, Yahoo

Rates: UST 10Y 5.277%, 2Y 4.780%, 10Y−2Y curve 50 bp; 10Y +9.3 bp over 5 sessions. Yields above 5% keep the cost of money high: the riskless alternative competes with assets that pay no coupon, which limits inflows into crypto and gold. Real yield 2.88% (Oct 1).
Dollar: DXY 101.93 (−0.17% on the day, +0.95% over 5 sessions), USDJPY 157.83.
Liquidity: Fed net liquidity $5,783bn as of Sep 30 (+13 $bn over the week) — no material change. HY credit spread 3.24% (+44 bp over 5 days, Oct 1). Widening high-yield spreads are an early sign of falling appetite for credit risk, which usually spreads to crypto assets as well.
Stocks and volatility: S&P 500 7,722.72 (−0.27% over 5 sessions, Oct 2), Nasdaq Composite 27,190.86 (+0.45% over 5 sessions, Oct 2), VIX 15.31 (+0.44 pts over 5 sessions, Oct 2). Low implied stock volatility points to calm risk appetite in the stock market; crypto is not receiving a stress impulse from there.
Commodities: Gold 4,162.30 (−3.68% over 5 sessions), WTI crude 91.11 (−1.41% over 5 sessions), Brent crude 102.25 (−1.98% over 5 sessions).
Where money is going (5 sessions): leaders — Japan +2.9%, bitcoin +1.6%, dollar +0.9%; laggards — oil −1.4%, copper −2.2%, gold −3.7%.

2. Transmission to crypto

Channel	Metric	Value
Institutional demand	BTC ETFs	+31.7 $m (Oct 2, partial); 5d +82.9; 20d +2,186.7
Institutional demand	ETH ETFs	−17.3 $m (Oct 2, partial); 5d −118.0; 20d +654.5
Crypto liquidity	Stablecoins	$312.0bn; 7d +1.88; 30d +3.29
Leverage	BTC: funding / OI	+0.0063% / 8h; OI 1,996 $m (+0.1% on the day)
Leverage	ETH: funding / OI	+0.0001% / 8h; OI 673 $m (−0.2% on the day)
30d correlations	BTC vs Nasdaq / DXY / gold / ΔUS10Y	+0.58 / −0.27 / +0.57 / −0.33
Sentiment	Fear & Greed index	67 (greed, Oct 3)

BTC correlations over 30 trading days (daily returns): with Nasdaq +0.58, with DXY −0.27, with gold +0.57, with the change in the 10Y yield −0.33. The link with stocks is significant — BTC trades as a high-beta risk asset; the negative link with the dollar makes DXY a direct pressure channel.
US spot BTC ETFs: +31.7 $m on Oct 2 (partial data), +82.9 $m over 5 days, +2,186.7 $m over 20 days.
US spot ETH ETFs: −17.3 $m on Oct 2 (partial data), −118.0 $m over 5 days, +654.5 $m over 20 days.
Stablecoins: market cap $312.0bn (+1.88 $bn over 7 days, +3.29 $bn over 30 days) — moderate issuance growth: liquidity is flowing in, but not in an impulsive way.
HTX derivatives — BTC: funding +0.0063% / 8h, OI 1,996 $m (+0.1% on the day); ETH: funding +0.0001% / 8h, OI 673 $m (−0.2% on the day); SOL: funding −0.0068% / 8h, OI 213 $m (+0.9% on the day). Median funding across 15 radar crypto instruments +0.0100% / 8h. Funding is near neutral: the move does not rely on aggressive leverage.
Fear & Greed index: 67 (greed), −7 over the week.

Dominant channels today: rates, stock-market risk appetite, stablecoin liquidity.

3. Crypto assets

Regime: Cautious (risk-off): pressure from rates, credit spreads, thin liquidity.

Regime: of 15 radar crypto assets, 6 are in an uptrend, 3 in a downtrend, the rest are range-bound; 13 show compressed volatility. Compression without a trend usually precedes a directional break — the direction will be set by the external impulse (rates, the dollar, flows).
Breadth: 14 of 15 rose over 24h; 11 of 14 altcoins outperformed BTC.
Rotation: BTC dominance 58.92% (−0.13 pp on the day), ETH/BTC −0.56% over 7 days. No material rotation between BTC and altcoins.
Relative strength vs BTC over 7 days: leaders — SUI +1.4 pp, BNB +1.3 pp, TRX +0.1 pp; laggards — ZEC −20.0 pp, FIL −5.8 pp, HYPE −4.0 pp.

Instrument	Price	24h	7d vs BTC	Direction · strength	Volatility	Support / resistance	24h range	Radar signal
BTC Bitcoin	84,871	+0.38%	—	◆ range ○○○	compressed	84,000 / 84,998	84,504–84,998	none
ETH Ethereum	2,694.6	+0.74%	−0.6 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	2,650.0 / 2,695.6	2,673.0–2,695.6	none
SOL Solana	120.92	+1.51%	−0.1 pp	▲ up ●●○	compressed	120.29 / 122.29	119.00–121.27	none
DOGE Dogecoin	0.0929	+0.01%	−3.5 pp	▼ down ●●○	compressed	0.0924 / 0.0936	0.0924–0.0934	none
XRP XRP	1.493	+0.51%	−1.6 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	1.469 / 1.514	1.478–1.495	none
BNB BNB	786.88	+2.66%	+1.3 pp	▲ up ●●○	compressed	774.62 / 797.97	764.20–792.90	none
HYPE Hyperliquid	90.059	+2.25%	−4.0 pp	▲ up ●○○	compressed	88.764 / 91.421	87.720–90.185	none
ZEC Zcash	1,335.4	+1.48%	−20.0 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	1,315.0 / 1,352.8	1,283.0–1,335.4	none
ADA Cardano	0.2445	−0.35%	−3.4 pp	▼ down ●○○	compressed	0.2402 / 0.2486	0.2421–0.2469	none
LTC Litecoin	70.730	+2.82%	−2.4 pp	▲ up ●●○	normal	69.360 / 72.070	68.540–70.830	none
SUI Sui	1.183	+2.58%	+1.4 pp	▲ up ●●○	normal	1.165 / 1.192	1.149–1.194	none
FIL Filecoin	1.063	+0.84%	−5.8 pp	▲ up ●●○	compressed	1.053 / 1.076	1.040–1.083	none
TRX TRON	0.3351	+0.27%	+0.1 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	0.3341 / 0.3361	0.3341–0.3373	none
PEPE Pepe	0.0₅4290	+1.26%	−1.2 pp	▼ down ●○○	compressed	0.0₅4216 / 0.0₅4358	0.0₅4218–0.0₅4333	none
LINK Chainlink	14.052	+0.84%	−0.7 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	13.941 / 14.146	13.780–14.229	none
XAU Gold	4,149.2	+0.02%	—	▼ down ●●●	compressed	4,146.0 / 4,207.4	4,146.0–4,151.1	none
USOIL WTI crude	91.070	+0.20%	—	◆ range ○○○	compressed	90.960 / 91.210	90.860–91.420	none
BRENTOIL Brent crude	102.20	+0.48%	—	▲ up ●●●	compressed	100.61 / 103.78	101.73–102.46	none

Price snapshot: 08:46 MSK (05:46 UTC), public HTX quotes. Direction — price vs EMA50/EMA200 on the hourly chart; strength — distance from EMA200 in ATR (0–3); levels — largest order-book clusters within ±4% and 24-hour extremes. “7d vs BTC” — 7-day return difference vs BTC.

Levels the committee is watching

US10Y: a sustained move below 5.05% would ease rate pressure on risk assets

4. Scenarios

Base case. Consolidation with a downside bias. BTC stays within the last day's range (84,504–84,998). While UST yields stay above 5%, the external backdrop brings no new demand; with compressed volatility, false breaks of the range are more likely than a sustained trend.

Alternative case. A BTC break above the upper bound of the daily range on rising volume. The most likely trigger is lower yields and a weaker dollar after macro data; confirmation would be renewed spot ETF inflows and growth in stablecoin market cap.

What would change our view:

UST 10Y: a sustained move below 5.05% would ease rate pressure on risk assets.
DXY: a reversal below the previous close would ease some pressure; now 101.93 (−0.17%).
Spot BTC ETF flows: a sign change in the 5-day sum (now +82.9 $m) would change the assessment of institutional demand.
Stablecoins: a weekly decline in market cap (now +1.88 $bn) would signal liquidity leaving crypto.

Catalysts — today and next 24h:

Oct 4, time TBA — OPEC+ seven countries (SA, RU, IQ, KW, KZ, DZ, OM) monthly meeting - November 2026 production
Oct 4, time TBA — OPEC+ 68th JMMC meeting (videoconference, reviews conformity; no quota-setting authority)

Later this week:

Oct 5 17:00 MSK · 14:00 UTC — ISM Services PMI (Sep)
Oct 6 03:00 MSK · 00:00 UTC — HYPE Core Contributors monthly unlock (cliff, ceiling 9.92M HYPE)
Oct 6 16:53 MSK · 13:53 UTC — Ethereum Glamsterdam hard fork on Sepolia testnet (epoch 353,024)
Oct 7, time TBA — Sui Basecamp 2026 (Singapore, with TOKEN2049) - product reveals; "One More Thing" 08.10 16:10 SGT
Oct 7, time TBA — TOKEN2049 Singapore (main days 07-08.10; week 05-11.10)
Oct 7 17:30 MSK · 14:30 UTC — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (crude inventories, w/e 02.10)
Oct 7 21:00 MSK · 18:00 UTC — FOMC Minutes (Sep 15-16 meeting)

Risks of the day:

Rates: the 10-year UST yield is 5.277% — above 5%. Tight financial conditions weigh on risk assets; the reaction to macro data may be sharp.
Credit spreads are widening — a sign of falling risk appetite.
Thin liquidity: higher risk of false breakouts, slippage and sharp sell-offs.

5. Verification: forecast track record

The hit rate will appear after 20 checked statements. Only statements from public issues count (since October 5, 2026); each is recorded at publication with a condition, deadline and data source and checked automatically against public HTX prices and FRED data, with no cherry-picking or manual edits.

This material is for information and research purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice, an offer or a solicitation to trade. Trading crypto assets, commodities and leveraged instruments involves high risk, including the total loss of funds. Past results and forecasts do not guarantee future returns. You make your own decisions.

Sources: public market data — HTX, OKX, CoinMarketCap, FRED, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, DefiLlama, Farside (spot ETF flows), alternative.me; economic calendar. The issue is assembled automatically from the materials of the AKSHAR GROUP research committee's morning session (08:00–08:40 MSK); all figures are as of the session, “n/a” means no verified source. The committee's written commentary is published in the Russian edition only.