AKSHAR GROUP · Cross-market review: from macro to crypto assets

Summary

World: UST 10Y 5.262% and the dollar (DXY 102.35, +0.41% on the day) set tight financial conditions, while the stock market is calm (VIX 15.3). Transmission to crypto runs mainly through: rates, the dollar, stock-market risk appetite; BTC correlation with Nasdaq 0.58, with DXY −0.21; BTC ETFs +82.9 $m over 5 days. Crypto assets: BTC 85,720 (+1.11% over 24h, daily range 84,779–86,964), 11 of 15 radar assets rose over the day; base case — consolidation with a downside bias, with BTC failing to settle above 86,964.

1. World: rates, dollar, liquidity

Metric	Value	Δ day	Δ 5 sessions	As of
UST 10Y, %	5.262	−1.5 bp	+2.2 bp	Oct 5 08:22 MSK, CNBC
UST 2Y, %	4.802	—	−0.8 bp	Oct 5 08:22 MSK, CNBC
10Y−2Y spread, bp	46	—	—	Oct 5 08:22 MSK, calc.
10Y real yield (TIPS), %	2.88	−5.0 bp	+3.0 bp	Oct 1, FRED
DXY	102.35	+0.41%	+1.13%	Oct 5 08:22 MSK, CNBC
USDJPY	158.00	+0.05%	+0.34%	Oct 5, Yahoo
EURUSD	1.1187	−0.56%	−1.68%	Oct 5, Yahoo
Fed net liquidity, $bn	5,783	—	+13 $bn/wk	Sep 30, FRED (WALCL−TGA−RRP)
HY spread (OAS), %	3.24	+12.0 bp	+44.0 bp	Oct 1, FRED
S&P 500	7,722.72	+0.73%	−0.27%	Oct 2, Yahoo
Nasdaq Composite	27,190.86	+1.19%	+0.45%	Oct 2, Yahoo
VIX	15.31	−1.1 pts	+0.4 pts	Oct 2, Yahoo
Gold, $/oz	4,159.20	−0.07%	−0.22%	Oct 5, Yahoo
WTI crude, $	90.39	−0.79%	−2.39%	Oct 5, Yahoo
Brent crude, $	101.83	−0.41%	−3.28%	Oct 5, Yahoo
Copper, $/lb	6.57	+1.22%	+0.08%	Oct 5, Yahoo
Nikkei 225	69,703.76	+2.04%	+5.81%	Oct 5, Yahoo

Rates: UST 10Y 5.262%, 2Y 4.802%, 10Y−2Y curve 46 bp; 10Y +2.2 bp over 5 sessions. Yields above 5% keep the cost of money high: the riskless alternative competes with assets that pay no coupon, which limits inflows into crypto and gold. Real yield 2.88% (Oct 1).
Dollar: DXY 102.35 (+0.41% on the day, +1.13% over 5 sessions), USDJPY 158.00. A stronger dollar tightens global financial conditions and usually weighs on the dollar price of crypto assets.
Liquidity: Fed net liquidity $5,783bn as of Sep 30 (+13 $bn over the week) — no material change. HY credit spread 3.24% (+44 bp over 5 days, Oct 1). Widening high-yield spreads are an early sign of falling appetite for credit risk, which usually spreads to crypto assets as well.
Stocks and volatility: S&P 500 7,722.72 (−0.27% over 5 sessions, Oct 2), Nasdaq Composite 27,190.86 (+0.45% over 5 sessions, Oct 2), VIX 15.31 (+0.44 pts over 5 sessions, Oct 2). Low implied stock volatility points to calm risk appetite in the stock market; crypto is not receiving a stress impulse from there.
Commodities: Gold 4,159.20 (−0.22% over 5 sessions), WTI crude 90.39 (−2.39% over 5 sessions), Brent crude 101.83 (−3.28% over 5 sessions).
Where money is going (5 sessions): leaders — Japan +5.8%, bitcoin +2.3%, dollar +1.2%; laggards — US stocks −0.3%, Germany −0.7%, oil −2.4%.

2. Transmission to crypto

Channel	Metric	Value
Institutional demand	BTC ETFs	+31.7 $m (Oct 2, partial); 5d +82.9; 20d +2,186.7
Institutional demand	ETH ETFs	−17.3 $m (Oct 2, partial); 5d −118.0; 20d +654.5
Crypto liquidity	Stablecoins	$312.2bn; 7d +0.71; 30d +3.31
Leverage	BTC: funding / OI	+0.0024% / 8h; OI 2,001 $m (+0.3% on the day)
Leverage	ETH: funding / OI	+0.0047% / 8h; OI 658 $m (−2.2% on the day)
30d correlations	BTC vs Nasdaq / DXY / gold / ΔUS10Y	+0.58 / −0.21 / +0.48 / −0.33
Sentiment	Fear & Greed index	65 (greed, Oct 4)

BTC correlations over 30 trading days (daily returns): with Nasdaq +0.58, with DXY −0.21, with gold +0.48, with the change in the 10Y yield −0.33. The link with stocks is significant — BTC trades as a high-beta risk asset; the negative link with the dollar makes DXY a direct pressure channel.
US spot BTC ETFs: +31.7 $m on Oct 2 (partial data), +82.9 $m over 5 days, +2,186.7 $m over 20 days.
US spot ETH ETFs: −17.3 $m on Oct 2 (partial data), −118.0 $m over 5 days, +654.5 $m over 20 days.
Stablecoins: market cap $312.2bn (+0.71 $bn over 7 days, +3.31 $bn over 30 days) — moderate issuance growth: liquidity is flowing in, but not in an impulsive way.
HTX derivatives — BTC: funding +0.0024% / 8h, OI 2,001 $m (+0.3% on the day); ETH: funding +0.0047% / 8h, OI 658 $m (−2.2% on the day); SOL: funding +0.0100% / 8h, OI 213 $m (−0.2% on the day). Median funding across 15 radar crypto instruments +0.0100% / 8h. Funding is near neutral: the move does not rely on aggressive leverage.
Fear & Greed index: 65 (greed), −5 over the week.

Dominant channels today: rates, the dollar, stock-market risk appetite.

3. Crypto assets

Regime: Cautious (risk-off): pressure from rates, the dollar, fading crypto momentum, thin liquidity.

Regime: of 15 radar crypto assets, 3 are in an uptrend, 2 in a downtrend, the rest are range-bound; 10 show compressed volatility. Compression without a trend usually precedes a directional break — the direction will be set by the external impulse (rates, the dollar, flows).
Breadth: 11 of 15 rose over 24h; 5 of 14 altcoins outperformed BTC.
Rotation: BTC dominance 59.01% (+0.08 pp on the day), ETH/BTC −0.78% over 7 days. No material rotation between BTC and altcoins.
Relative strength vs BTC over 7 days: leaders — ADA +4.4 pp, PEPE +1.7 pp, BNB −0.1 pp; laggards — ZEC −18.2 pp, FIL −7.1 pp, LTC −4.0 pp.

Instrument	Price	24h	7d vs BTC	Direction · strength	Volatility	Support / resistance	24h range	Radar signal
BTC Bitcoin	85,720	+1.11%	—	◆ range ○○○	normal	85,000 / 87,400	84,779–86,964	none
ETH Ethereum	2,705.2	+0.53%	−0.8 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	2,657.0 / 2,748.0	2,690.0–2,739.4	none
SOL Solana	120.46	−0.10%	−2.0 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	119.09 / 121.82	119.89–122.25	none
DOGE Dogecoin	0.0953	+2.83%	−1.6 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	0.0927 / 0.0966	0.0927–0.0976	none
XRP XRP	1.507	+1.10%	−1.9 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	1.482 / 1.529	1.490–1.531	none
BNB BNB	791.23	+0.86%	−0.1 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	779.94 / 803.44	784.50–810.20	none
HYPE Hyperliquid	91.007	+1.45%	−1.9 pp	▲ up ●○○	compressed	89.572 / 92.424	89.601–91.222	none
ZEC Zcash	1,322.7	+0.52%	−18.2 pp	▼ down ●●○	compressed	1,305.4 / 1,339.5	1,310.0–1,368.0	none
ADA Cardano	0.2687	+10.44%	+4.4 pp	▲ up ●●○	high	0.2431 / 0.2724	0.2431–0.2724	none
LTC Litecoin	69.710	−0.84%	−4.0 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	68.330 / 71.080	69.680–72.240	none
SUI Sui	1.218	+3.20%	−3.9 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	1.170 / 1.264	1.170–1.264	none
FIL Filecoin	1.051	−1.45%	−7.1 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	1.039 / 1.065	1.042–1.070	none
TRX TRON	0.3348	−0.11%	−2.2 pp	▼ down ●○○	compressed	0.3342 / 0.3354	0.3343–0.3363	none
PEPE Pepe	0.0₅4386	+2.47%	+1.7 pp	▲ up ●○○	compressed	0.0₅4318 / 0.0₅4458	0.0₅4261–0.0₅4476	none
LINK Chainlink	14.086	+0.57%	−1.6 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	13.973 / 14.194	13.973–14.321	none
XAU Gold	4,147.0	−0.04%	—	▼ down ●●●	normal	4,136.1 / 4,168.1	4,134.7–4,170.0	none
USOIL WTI crude	90.000	−1.19%	—	▼ down ●●○	compressed	89.500 / 91.890	89.500–91.890	none
BRENTOIL Brent crude	101.68	−0.50%	—	◆ range ○○○	compressed	101.26 / 102.33	101.07–103.18	none

Price snapshot: 08:45 MSK (05:45 UTC), public HTX quotes. Direction — price vs EMA50/EMA200 on the hourly chart; strength — distance from EMA200 in ATR (0–3); levels — largest order-book clusters within ±4% and 24-hour extremes. “7d vs BTC” — 7-day return difference vs BTC.

Levels the committee is watching

BTC: an hourly close above 86,395 and staying above 86,964 would invalidate the bearish scenario; an hourly close below 84,522 would signal market weakness
US10Y: a sustained move below 5.05% would ease rate pressure on risk assets

4. Scenarios

Base case. Consolidation with a downside bias. BTC stays within the last day's range (84,779–86,964) and fails to settle above 86,964. While UST yields stay above 5% and the dollar strengthens, the external backdrop brings no new demand; with compressed volatility, false breaks of the range are more likely than a sustained trend.

Alternative case. An hourly BTC close above 86,964 that is sustained would cancel the committee's bearish view. The most likely trigger is lower yields and a weaker dollar after macro data; confirmation would be renewed spot ETF inflows and growth in stablecoin market cap.

What would change our view:

BTC: an hourly close above 86,964 — the view shifts to neutral-positive.
BTC: an hourly close below 84,522 — confirmation of weakness, risk of an accelerating decline.
UST 10Y: a sustained move below 5.05% would ease rate pressure on risk assets.
ISM Services PMI (Sep) (Oct 5 17:00 MSK · 14:00 UTC): above 57.2 — a hawkish signal (pressure via rates and the dollar), below 54.2 — dovish (support for risk); consensus 55.7.
DXY: a reversal below the previous close would ease some pressure; now 102.35 (+0.41%).
Spot BTC ETF flows: a sign change in the 5-day sum (now +82.9 $m) would change the assessment of institutional demand.
Stablecoins: a weekly decline in market cap (now +0.71 $bn) would signal liquidity leaving crypto.

Catalysts — today and next 24h:

Oct 5 17:00 MSK · 14:00 UTC — ISM Services PMI (Sep) (consensus 55.7, prev. 55.4)
Oct 6 03:00 MSK · 00:00 UTC — HYPE Core Contributors monthly unlock (cliff, ceiling 9.92M HYPE)

Later this week:

Oct 6 16:53 MSK · 13:53 UTC — Ethereum Glamsterdam hard fork on Sepolia testnet (epoch 353,024)
Oct 7, time TBA — Sui Basecamp 2026 (Singapore, with TOKEN2049) - product reveals; "One More Thing" 08.10 16:10 SGT
Oct 7, time TBA — TOKEN2049 Singapore (main days 07-08.10; week 05-11.10)
Oct 7 17:30 MSK · 14:30 UTC — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (crude inventories, w/e 02.10)
Oct 7 21:00 MSK · 18:00 UTC — FOMC Minutes (Sep 15-16 meeting)
Oct 8 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC — Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 03.10)

Risks of the day:

Rates: the 10-year UST yield is 5.262% — above 5%. Tight financial conditions weigh on risk assets; the reaction to macro data may be sharp.
The dollar is strengthening — a negative backdrop for crypto and gold.
Thin liquidity: higher risk of false breakouts, slippage and sharp sell-offs.
Crypto momentum is fading — continued gains without volume confirmation are questionable.
Volatility window around the release of “ISM Services PMI (Sep)”: 16:45–17:30 MSK (13:45–14:30 UTC).
HYPE Core Contributors monthly unlock (cliff, ceiling 9.92M HYPE) — Oct 6 03:00 MSK · 00:00 UTC: possible supply pressure on HYPE.
The committee sees an hourly BTC close below 84,522 as a sign of a structural break.
Data quality is lower than usual: some sources are stale, traditional-market estimates are preliminary.

5. Verification: forecast track record

Published: 2 · Checked: 0 · Correct: 0

The hit rate will appear after 20 checked statements. Only statements from public issues count (since October 5, 2026); each is recorded at publication with a condition, deadline and data source and checked automatically against public HTX prices and FRED data, with no cherry-picking or manual edits.

Verifiable statements in this issue

BTC will not post an hourly close above 86,964 from Oct 5 12:00 to Oct 6 08:40 MSK (the committee's bearish scenario will not be invalidated). Checked against: HTX USDT perpetual BTC-USDT, hourly candles (close).
The 10-year UST yield (FRED DGS10, daily values) will not fall below 5.05% on any day from Oct 5 to Oct 12 inclusive (the high-rate regime will persist). Checked against: FRED DGS10 (Market Yield on U.S. Treasury 10-Year, daily).

This material is for information and research purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice, an offer or a solicitation to trade. Trading crypto assets, commodities and leveraged instruments involves high risk, including the total loss of funds. Past results and forecasts do not guarantee future returns. You make your own decisions.

Sources: public market data — HTX, OKX, CoinMarketCap, FRED, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, DefiLlama, Farside (spot ETF flows), alternative.me; economic calendar. The issue is assembled automatically from the materials of the AKSHAR GROUP research committee's morning session (08:00–08:40 MSK); all figures are as of the session, “n/a” means no verified source. The committee's written commentary is published in the Russian edition only.