AKSHAR GROUP · Cross-market review: from macro to crypto assets

Summary

BTC 24h outlook: range 76,840–79,630 (68% probability) without a clear direction. World: UST 10Y 4.989% and the dollar (DXY 101.76, −0.27% on the day) set tight financial conditions. Transmission to crypto runs mainly through: stock-market risk appetite, ETF flows (BTC), stablecoin liquidity; BTC correlation with Nasdaq 0.62, with DXY 0.05; BTC ETFs +302.9 $m over 5 days. Crypto assets: BTC 78,225 (−2.48% over 24h, daily range 76,472–81,944), 3 of 15 radar assets rose over the day.

Takeaway of the day

Thesis: a 68% probability that BTC ends the day within 76,840–79,630 (±1.78%), no clear bias.
Asymmetry: nearest liquidation clusters at +4.34% and −3.16% from price — closer below; the range itself is volatility-symmetric.
Invalidation: an hourly close above 79,630 or below 76,840 puts the base case at risk and the view is reviewed (the forecast is scored on the hourly close at 08:00 MSK).
What to watch: inside the range, breaks without volume tend to fail; an upside exit is confirmed by ETF inflows and stablecoin growth; a downside exit by wider credit spreads and a stronger dollar.
This describes the market picture; it is not investment advice.

What changed since yesterday

Market regime changed: neutral-cautious → neutral.
Fear & Greed index: 51 → 30.
BTC ETFs: +17.2 $m on 10-29; 5-day sum −349.9 → +302.9 $m (sign change).

1. World: rates, dollar, liquidity

Metric	Value	Δ day	Δ 5 sessions	As of
UST 10Y, %	4.989	−5.6 bp	+3.6 bp	close Oct 29, Yahoo
UST 2Y, %	4.670	−3.0 bp	−14.0 bp	Oct 28, FRED
10Y−2Y spread, bp	32	—	—	Oct 28, calc.
10Y real yield (TIPS), %	2.67	+3.0 bp	−9.0 bp	Oct 28, FRED
DXY	101.76	−0.27%	−0.05%	Oct 30, Yahoo
USDJPY	157.41	−0.27%	+0.58%	Oct 30, Yahoo
EURUSD	1.1191	+0.31%	−0.27%	Oct 30, Yahoo
Fed net liquidity, $bn	5,746	—	−56 $bn/wk	Oct 28, FRED (WALCL−TGA−RRP)
HY spread (OAS), %	3.14	−4.0 bp	−13.0 bp	Oct 28, FRED
S&P 500	7,720.39	−0.30%	+0.74%	Oct 29, Yahoo
Nasdaq Composite	26,184.72	−1.38%	+0.68%	Oct 29, Yahoo
VIX	17.20	+0.3 pts	−1.8 pts	Oct 29, Yahoo
Gold, $/oz	4,001.20	−0.75%	−0.17%	Oct 30, Yahoo
WTI crude, $	103.16	+1.14%	−0.11%	Oct 30, Yahoo
Brent crude, $	112.09	—	−3.97%	Oct 30, Yahoo
Copper, $/lb	6.55	−0.44%	+1.17%	Oct 30, Yahoo
Nikkei 225	63,153.88	−2.33%	+0.73%	Oct 30, Yahoo

Rates: UST 10Y 4.989%, 2Y 4.670%, 10Y−2Y curve 32 bp; 10Y +3.6 bp over 5 sessions. Real yield 2.67% (Oct 28).
Dollar: DXY 101.76 (−0.27% on the day, −0.05% over 5 sessions), USDJPY 157.41. A weaker dollar eases financial conditions — a supportive factor for risk assets.
Liquidity: Fed net liquidity $5,746bn as of Oct 28 (−56 $bn over the week). HY credit spread 3.14% (−13 bp over 5 days, Oct 28).
Stocks and volatility: S&P 500 7,720.39 (+0.74% over 5 sessions, Oct 29), Nasdaq Composite 26,184.72 (+0.68% over 5 sessions, Oct 29), VIX 17.20 (−1.83 pts over 5 sessions, Oct 29). Stock volatility is moderate.
Commodities: Gold 4,001.20 (−0.17% over 5 sessions), WTI crude 103.16 (−0.11% over 5 sessions), Brent crude 112.09 (−3.97% over 5 sessions).
Where money is going (5 sessions): leaders — Germany +2.6%, copper +1.2%, US stocks +0.7%; laggards — gold −0.2%, bitcoin −3.2%, ether −4.9%.

2. Transmission to crypto

Channel	Metric	Value
Institutional demand	BTC ETFs	+17.2 $m (Oct 29); 5d +302.9; 20d +24.6
Institutional demand	ETH ETFs	−105.5 $m (Oct 29); 5d −271.3; 20d −1,396.1
Crypto liquidity	Stablecoins	$299.4bn; 7d −3.81; 30d −6.87
Leverage (HTX only)	BTC: funding / OI	+0.0100% / 8h; OI 1,437 $m (−2.5% on the day)
Leverage (HTX only)	ETH: funding / OI	+0.0100% / 8h; OI 112 $m (−22.2% on the day)
30d correlations	BTC vs Nasdaq / DXY / gold / ΔUS10Y	+0.62 / +0.05 / +0.32 / +0.09
Sentiment	Fear & Greed index	30 (fear, Oct 30)

BTC correlations over 30 trading days (daily returns): with Nasdaq +0.62, with DXY +0.05, with gold +0.32, with the change in the 10Y yield +0.09. The link with stocks is significant — BTC trades as a high-beta risk asset; the daily link with the dollar is currently weak.
US spot BTC ETFs: +17.2 $m on Oct 29, +302.9 $m over 5 days, +24.6 $m over 20 days.
US spot ETH ETFs: −105.5 $m on Oct 29, −271.3 $m over 5 days, −1,396.1 $m over 20 days.
Stablecoins: market cap $299.4bn (−3.81 $bn over 7 days, −6.87 $bn over 30 days) — issuance is shrinking: liquidity is leaving the crypto system.
HTX derivatives — BTC: funding +0.0100% / 8h, OI 1,437 $m (−2.5% on the day); ETH: funding +0.0100% / 8h, OI 112 $m (−22.2% on the day); SOL: funding +0.0100% / 8h, OI 148 $m (−3.7% on the day). Funding is near neutral: the move does not rely on aggressive leverage.
Fear & Greed index: 30 (fear), −20 over the week.

Dominant channels today: stock-market risk appetite, ETF flows (BTC), stablecoin liquidity.

BTC: funding and open interest (HTX only)

3. Crypto assets

Regime: Neutral: no pronounced market direction.

Regime: of 15 radar crypto assets, 2 are in an uptrend, 9 in a downtrend, the rest are range-bound; 0 show compressed volatility. Compression without a trend usually precedes a directional break — the direction will be set by the external impulse (rates, the dollar, flows).
Breadth: 3 of 15 rose over 24h; 5 of 14 altcoins outperformed BTC.
Rotation: BTC dominance 59.97% (−0.11 pp on the day), ETH/BTC −2.31% over 7 days. No material rotation between BTC and altcoins.
Relative strength vs BTC over 7 days: leaders — HYPE +22.8 pp, PEPE +13.7 pp, TRX +9.3 pp; laggards — FIL −10.8 pp, ADA −6.1 pp, SUI −5.6 pp.
Consortium commentary: Consortium macro regime: mixed. 24h macro scenarios: risk-off strengthens 45%. No hourly direction call: the model's Brier score is 0.252 (≥ 0.25 — no better than chance).

Instrument	Price	24h	7d vs BTC	Trend · stretch	Volatility	Support / resistance	24h range	Radar signal
BTC Bitcoin	78,225	−2.48%	—	▼ down ●○○	high	76,472 / 81,944	76,472–81,944	none
ETH Ethereum	2,242.4	−3.37%	−2.2 pp	▼ down ●○○	high	2,171.5 / 2,378.8	2,171.5–2,378.8	none
SOL Solana	97.160	−2.95%	−2.5 pp	▼ down ●○○	high	92.260 / 103.17	92.260–103.17	none
DOGE Dogecoin	0.0761	−2.79%	−0.1 pp	▼ down ●○○	high	0.0720 / 0.0815	0.0720–0.0815	none
XRP XRP	1.253	−3.32%	−0.8 pp	▼ down ●○○	high	1.199 / 1.318	1.199–1.318	none
BNB BNB	716.50	−5.05%	+1.0 pp	▼ down ●○○	high	677.47 / 759.00	677.47–759.00	none
HYPE Hyperliquid	92.373	+16.69%	+22.8 pp	▲ up ●●○	high	78.545 / 97.089	78.545–97.089	none
ZEC Zcash	1,275.7	+2.39%	+8.9 pp	◆ range ○○○	high	1,181.0 / 1,397.8	1,181.0–1,397.8	none
ADA Cardano	0.1931	−2.87%	−6.1 pp	▼ down ●●○	high	0.1820 / 0.2085	0.1820–0.2085	none
LTC Litecoin	55.980	−2.68%	−1.7 pp	◆ range ○○○	high	52.770 / 58.890	52.770–58.890	none
SUI Sui	0.8942	−1.82%	−5.6 pp	◆ range ○○○	high	0.8262 / 0.9615	0.8262–0.9615	none
FIL Filecoin	0.8427	−3.77%	−10.8 pp	▼ down ●●○	high	0.7683 / 0.9249	0.7683–0.9249	none
TRX TRON	0.3468	+4.71%	+9.3 pp	▲ up ●○○	high	0.3284 / 0.3671	0.3284–0.3671	none
PEPE Pepe	0.0₅4945	−2.03%	+13.7 pp	◆ range ○○○	high	0.0₅4276 / 0.0₅5684	0.0₅4276–0.0₅5684	none
LINK Chainlink	11.047	−3.63%	−4.9 pp	▼ down ●○○	high	10.245 / 12.013	10.245–12.013	none
XAU Gold	4,009.4	−0.93%	—	▼ down ●●○	normal	4,000.9 / 4,054.4	4,000.9–4,054.4	none
USOIL WTI crude	103.01	+1.60%	—	▲ up ●○○	high	100.04 / 105.07	100.04–105.07	none
BRENTOIL Brent crude	112.06	+1.61%	—	▲ up ●○○	high	107.87 / 114.00	107.87–114.00	none

Price snapshot: 08:40 MSK (05:40 UTC), public HTX quotes. Trend — price position relative to EMA50/EMA200 on the hourly chart; dots — how far price has moved from EMA200, in ATR. This describes the current state; it is not a forecast or a signal. Levels — largest order-book clusters within ±4% and 24-hour extremes. “7d vs BTC” — 7-day return difference vs BTC.

4. Scenarios

Base case. Range trading: BTC within 76,840–79,630 (68% probability); no directional impulse from macro or flows.

Alternative case. A BTC break above the upper bound of the 68% range on rising volume. The most likely trigger is lower yields and a weaker dollar after macro data; confirmation would be renewed spot ETF inflows and growth in stablecoin market cap.

What would change our view:

DXY: a reversal below the previous close would ease some pressure; now 101.76 (−0.27%).
Spot BTC ETF flows: a sign change in the 5-day sum (now +302.9 $m) would change the assessment of institutional demand.
Stablecoins: a weekly decline in market cap (now −3.81 $bn) would signal liquidity leaving crypto.

Catalysts — today and next 24h:

No major scheduled events.

Risks of the day:

The BTC liquidation cluster near 82,066 (+4.34% from price) may act as a price magnet.
The BTC liquidation cluster near 76,168 (−3.16% from price) may act as a price magnet.
The ETH liquidation cluster near 2,165 (−3.64% from price) may act as a price magnet.

5. Verification: forecast track record

Published: 14 · Checked: 13 · Correct: 11

The hit rate will appear after 20 checked statements. Only statements from public issues count (since October 5, 2026); each is recorded at publication with a condition, deadline and data source and checked automatically against public HTX prices and FRED data, with no cherry-picking or manual edits.

❌ Direction: BTC will close the hour ending 08:00 MSK on Oct 28 below the issue price 79,733 (market-regime bias).
✅ BTC will close the hour ending 08:00 MSK on Oct 29 within 79,660–82,290 (±1σ of daily volatility, stated probability 68%).
✅ Direction: BTC will close the hour ending 08:00 MSK on Oct 29 below the issue price 80,964 (market-regime bias).
❌ BTC will close the hour ending 08:00 MSK on Oct 30 within 78,900–81,560 (±1σ of daily volatility, stated probability 68%).
✅ Direction: BTC will close the hour ending 08:00 MSK on Oct 30 below the issue price 80,218 (market-regime bias).

Retro run of the 68% method (computed after the fact, not in the main count): checked 17, correct 12; 68% range: 9 of 11; direction: 3 of 6.

Verifiable statements in this issue

BTC will close the hour ending 08:00 MSK on Oct 31 within 76,840–79,630 (±1σ of daily volatility, stated probability 68%). Checked against: HTX USDT perpetual BTC-USDT, hourly candles (close).

This material is for information and research purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice, an offer or a solicitation to trade. Trading crypto assets, commodities and leveraged instruments involves high risk, including the total loss of funds. Past results and forecasts do not guarantee future returns. You make your own decisions.

Sources: public market data — HTX, OKX, CoinMarketCap, FRED, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, DefiLlama, Farside (spot ETF flows), alternative.me; economic calendar. The issue is assembled automatically from the conclusions of the AKSHAR GROUP AI research consortium (macro, crypto, risk; forecast quality is checked by the Auditor) and market data; all figures are as of the snapshot, “n/a” means no verified source.