AKSHAR GROUP · Cross-market review: from macro to crypto assets

Summary

Forecast for the day: consolidation with a downside bias. World: UST 10Y 5.217% and the dollar (DXY 102.10, −0.08% on the day) set tight financial conditions, while the stock market is calm (VIX 15.3). Transmission to crypto runs mainly through: rates, stock-market risk appetite, ETF flows (BTC), ETF flows (ETH), stablecoin liquidity; BTC correlation with Nasdaq 0.68, with DXY −0.21; BTC ETFs −597.6 $m over 5 days. Crypto assets: BTC 83,404 (−0.39% over 24h, daily range 82,908–84,131), 3 of 15 radar assets rose over the day.

1. World: rates, dollar, liquidity

Metric	Value	Δ day	Δ 5 sessions	As of
UST 10Y, %	5.217	−2.3 bp	−5.2 bp	close Oct 13, Yahoo
UST 2Y, %	4.800	+5.0 bp	−3.0 bp	Oct 9, FRED
10Y−2Y spread, bp	42	—	—	Oct 9, calc.
10Y real yield (TIPS), %	2.91	+4.0 bp	−1.0 bp	Oct 9, FRED
DXY	102.10	−0.08%	−0.14%	Oct 14, Yahoo
USDJPY	158.20	−0.20%	−0.06%	Oct 14, Yahoo
EURUSD	1.1212	+0.46%	−0.37%	Oct 14, Yahoo
Fed net liquidity, $bn	5,865	—	+82 $bn/wk	Oct 7, FRED (WALCL−TGA−RRP)
HY spread (OAS), %	3.11	0.0 bp	−1.0 bp	Oct 12, FRED
S&P 500	7,805.45	−0.02%	−0.17%	Oct 13, Yahoo
Nasdaq Composite	27,204.38	−0.15%	−1.43%	Oct 13, Yahoo
VIX	15.27	+0.1 pts	+0.3 pts	Oct 13, Yahoo
Gold, $/oz	4,188.10	+0.26%	+1.14%	Oct 14, Yahoo
WTI crude, $	94.65	+0.54%	+7.22%	Oct 14, Yahoo
Brent crude, $	106.18	+0.46%	+5.97%	Oct 14, Yahoo
Copper, $/lb	6.78	+1.51%	+2.77%	Oct 14, Yahoo
Nikkei 225	68,363.78	+0.86%	−3.28%	Oct 14, Yahoo

Rates: UST 10Y 5.217%, 2Y 4.800%, 10Y−2Y curve 42 bp; 10Y −5.2 bp over 5 sessions. Yields above 5% keep the cost of money high: the riskless alternative competes with assets that pay no coupon, which limits inflows into crypto and gold. Real yield 2.91% (Oct 9).
Dollar: DXY 102.10 (−0.08% on the day, −0.14% over 5 sessions), USDJPY 158.20.
Liquidity: Fed net liquidity $5,865bn as of Oct 7 (+82 $bn over the week) — dollar liquidity is expanding — support for risk. HY credit spread 3.11% (−1 bp over 5 days, Oct 12).
Stocks and volatility: S&P 500 7,805.45 (−0.17% over 5 sessions, Oct 13), Nasdaq Composite 27,204.38 (−1.43% over 5 sessions, Oct 13), VIX 15.27 (+0.26 pts over 5 sessions, Oct 13). Low implied stock volatility points to calm risk appetite in the stock market; crypto is not receiving a stress impulse from there.
Commodities: Gold 4,188.10 (+1.14% over 5 sessions), WTI crude 94.65 (+7.22% over 5 sessions), Brent crude 106.18 (+5.97% over 5 sessions).
Where money is going (5 sessions): leaders — oil +7.2%, copper +2.8%, bitcoin +2.4%; laggards — Germany −0.7%, Nasdaq −1.4%, Japan −3.3%.

2. Transmission to crypto

Channel	Metric	Value
Institutional demand	BTC ETFs	+175.7 $m (Oct 13); 5d −597.6; 20d +2,354.9
Institutional demand	ETH ETFs	+24.8 $m (Oct 13); 5d −350.1; 20d −170.8
Crypto liquidity	Stablecoins	$311.2bn; 7d −1.58; 30d +2.63
Leverage	BTC: funding / OI	−0.0031% / 8h; OI 1,813 $m (−0.3% on the day)
Leverage	ETH: funding / OI	+0.0100% / 8h; OI 395 $m (−6.1% on the day)
30d correlations	BTC vs Nasdaq / DXY / gold / ΔUS10Y	+0.68 / −0.21 / +0.41 / −0.33
Sentiment	Fear & Greed index	62 (greed, Oct 14)

BTC correlations over 30 trading days (daily returns): with Nasdaq +0.68, with DXY −0.21, with gold +0.41, with the change in the 10Y yield −0.33. The link with stocks is significant — BTC trades as a high-beta risk asset; the negative link with the dollar makes DXY a direct pressure channel.
US spot BTC ETFs: +175.7 $m on Oct 13, −597.6 $m over 5 days, +2,354.9 $m over 20 days.
US spot ETH ETFs: +24.8 $m on Oct 13, −350.1 $m over 5 days, −170.8 $m over 20 days.
Stablecoins: market cap $311.2bn (−1.58 $bn over 7 days, +2.63 $bn over 30 days) — issuance is shrinking: liquidity is leaving the crypto system.
HTX derivatives — BTC: funding −0.0031% / 8h, OI 1,813 $m (−0.3% on the day); ETH: funding +0.0100% / 8h, OI 395 $m (−6.1% on the day); SOL: funding +0.0100% / 8h, OI 181 $m (−1.0% on the day). Negative funding: leveraged demand is skewed short — a price rise may accelerate on short covering.
Fear & Greed index: 62 (greed), −9 over the week.

Dominant channels today: rates, stock-market risk appetite, ETF flows (BTC), ETF flows (ETH), stablecoin liquidity.

3. Crypto assets

Regime: Neutral-to-cautious: no clear edge, a moderately negative backdrop.

Regime: of 15 radar crypto assets, 0 are in an uptrend, 5 in a downtrend, the rest are range-bound; 7 show compressed volatility. Compression without a trend usually precedes a directional break — the direction will be set by the external impulse (rates, the dollar, flows).
Breadth: 3 of 15 rose over 24h; 3 of 14 altcoins outperformed BTC.
Rotation: BTC dominance 59.80% (0.00 pp on the day), ETH/BTC −3.42% over 7 days. No material rotation between BTC and altcoins.
Relative strength vs BTC over 7 days: leaders — FIL +6.1 pp, PEPE +2.2 pp, TRX +0.5 pp; laggards — HYPE −9.2 pp, SOL −8.8 pp, LTC −8.1 pp.

Instrument	Price	24h	7d vs BTC	Trend · stretch	Volatility	Support / resistance	24h range	Radar signal
BTC Bitcoin	83,404	−0.39%	—	◆ range ○○○	normal	82,908 / 84,131	82,908–84,131	none
ETH Ethereum	2,504.0	−1.15%	−3.4 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	2,487.3 / 2,537.5	2,487.3–2,537.5	none
SOL Solana	107.13	−1.34%	−8.8 pp	▼ down ●●○	normal	105.57 / 109.05	105.57–109.05	none
DOGE Dogecoin	0.0845	−0.61%	−5.9 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	0.0829 / 0.0852	0.0829–0.0852	none
XRP XRP	1.368	−0.68%	−6.3 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	1.349 / 1.382	1.349–1.382	none
BNB BNB	742.30	−0.46%	−2.4 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	736.60 / 747.10	736.60–747.10	none
HYPE Hyperliquid	81.895	−1.65%	−9.2 pp	▼ down ●●●	normal	80.539 / 83.363	80.539–83.363	none
ZEC Zcash	1,254.0	+3.11%	−4.2 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	1,173.8 / 1,285.5	1,173.8–1,285.5	none
ADA Cardano	0.2349	−2.12%	−7.7 pp	▼ down ●●○	compressed	0.2313 / 0.2400	0.2313–0.2400	none
LTC Litecoin	61.680	−1.12%	−8.1 pp	▼ down ●●●	compressed	60.430 / 62.650	60.430–62.650	none
SUI Sui	1.049	−2.23%	−6.9 pp	▼ down ●●○	compressed	1.029 / 1.078	1.029–1.078	none
FIL Filecoin	1.166	−2.74%	+6.1 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	1.127 / 1.213	1.127–1.213	none
TRX TRON	0.3314	+0.45%	+0.5 pp	◆ range ○○○	high	0.3266 / 0.3318	0.3266–0.3318	none
PEPE Pepe	0.0₅4183	+1.21%	+2.2 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	0.0₅4019 / 0.0₅4265	0.0₅4019–0.0₅4265	none
LINK Chainlink	12.878	−1.53%	−5.5 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	12.715 / 13.106	12.715–13.106	none
XAU Gold	4,157.6	−0.96%	—	▼ down ●○○	normal	4,155.0 / 4,200.8	4,155.0–4,200.8	none
USOIL WTI crude	93.360	+1.83%	—	▲ up ●●○	normal	91.080 / 94.330	91.080–94.330	none
BRENTOIL Brent crude	103.10	+0.54%	—	◆ range ○○○	normal	101.76 / 104.21	101.76–104.21	none

Price snapshot: 10:40 MSK (07:40 UTC), public HTX quotes. Trend — price position relative to EMA50/EMA200 on the hourly chart; dots — how far price has moved from EMA200, in ATR. This describes the current state; it is not a forecast or a signal. Levels — largest order-book clusters within ±4% and 24-hour extremes. “7d vs BTC” — 7-day return difference vs BTC.

4. Scenarios

Base case. Consolidation with a downside bias. BTC stays within the last day's range (82,908–84,131). While UST yields stay above 5%, the external backdrop brings no new demand; with compressed volatility, false breaks of the range are more likely than a sustained trend.

Alternative case. A BTC break above the upper bound of the daily range on rising volume. The most likely trigger is lower yields and a weaker dollar after macro data; confirmation would be renewed spot ETF inflows and growth in stablecoin market cap.

What would change our view:

Core CPI MoM (Sep) (Oct 14 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC): above 0.4 — a hawkish signal (pressure via rates and the dollar), below 0 — dovish (support for risk); consensus 0.2.
Core CPI YoY (Sep) (Oct 14 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC): above 2.7 — a hawkish signal (pressure via rates and the dollar), below 2.3 — dovish (support for risk); consensus 2.5.
CPI MoM (Sep) (Oct 14 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC): above 0.8 — a hawkish signal (pressure via rates and the dollar), below 0.4 — dovish (support for risk); consensus 0.6.
CPI YoY (Sep) (Oct 14 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC): above 3.8 — a hawkish signal (pressure via rates and the dollar), below 3.4 — dovish (support for risk); consensus 3.6.
DXY: a reversal below the previous close would ease some pressure; now 102.10 (−0.08%).
Spot BTC ETF flows: a sign change in the 5-day sum (now −597.6 $m) would change the assessment of institutional demand.
Stablecoins: a weekly decline in market cap (now −1.58 $bn) would signal liquidity leaving crypto.

Catalysts — today and next 24h:

Oct 14 12:40 MSK · 09:40 UTC — Fed speech: Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman (Supervision and Regulation, 2026 IIF Annual Membership Summit)
Oct 14 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC — Core CPI MoM (Sep) (consensus 0.2, prev. 0.3)
Oct 14 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC — Core CPI YoY (Sep) (consensus 2.5, prev. 2.4)
Oct 14 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC — CPI MoM (Sep) (consensus 0.6, prev. 0.4)
Oct 14 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC — CPI YoY (Sep) (consensus 3.6, prev. 3.4)
Oct 14 17:55 MSK · 14:55 UTC — Fed speech: Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman
Oct 14 20:30 MSK · 17:30 UTC — Fed speech: Richmond Fed President Barkin
Oct 14 21:00 MSK · 18:00 UTC — Fed Beige Book
Oct 14 22:00 MSK · 19:00 UTC — Fed speech: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee
Oct 15 05:55 MSK · 02:55 UTC — Fed speech: Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman (Supervision and Regulation, Bangkok Economic Festival 2026)

Later this week:

Oct 15 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC — Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 10.10)
Oct 15 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC — PPI MoM (Sep)
Oct 15 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC — Retail Sales MoM (Sep, advance)
Oct 15 19:00 MSK · 16:00 UTC — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (w/e 09.10) - delayed by Columbus Day
Oct 16, time TBA — IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings, Bangkok (12-18.10; in-window tail 16-18.10: AM Plenary 16.10, IMFC 17.10)
Oct 16 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC — Import/Export Price Index (Sep)
Oct 16 16:15 MSK · 13:15 UTC — Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization (Sep), Fed G.17
Oct 16 20:00 MSK · 17:00 UTC — Baker Hughes US rig count
Oct 16 23:00 MSK · 20:00 UTC — TIC Flows (Aug), Net Long-Term

Risks of the day:

Rates: the 10-year UST yield is 5.217% — above 5%. Tight financial conditions weigh on risk assets; the reaction to macro data may be sharp.
Thin liquidity: higher risk of false breakouts, slippage and sharp sell-offs.
Volatility window around the release of “Fed speech: Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman (Supervision and Regulation, 2026 IIF Annual Membership Summit)”: 12:25–13:10 MSK (09:25–10:10 UTC).
Volatility window around the release of “Core CPI MoM (Sep)”: 15:15–16:00 MSK (12:15–13:00 UTC).
Volatility window around the release of “Core CPI YoY (Sep)”: 15:15–16:00 MSK (12:15–13:00 UTC).
Volatility window around the release of “CPI MoM (Sep)”: 15:15–16:00 MSK (12:15–13:00 UTC).
Volatility window around the release of “CPI YoY (Sep)”: 15:15–16:00 MSK (12:15–13:00 UTC).
Volatility window around the release of “Fed speech: Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman”: 17:40–18:25 MSK (14:40–15:25 UTC).
Volatility window around the release of “Fed speech: Richmond Fed President Barkin”: 20:15–21:00 MSK (17:15–18:00 UTC).
Volatility window around the release of “Fed Beige Book”: 20:45–21:30 MSK (17:45–18:30 UTC).
Volatility window around the release of “Fed speech: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee”: 21:45–22:30 MSK (18:45–19:30 UTC).
Volatility window around the release of “Fed speech: Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman”: 05:40–06:25 MSK (02:40–03:25 UTC).

5. Verification: forecast track record

Published: 2 · Checked: 2 · Correct: 2

The hit rate will appear after 20 checked statements. Only statements from public issues count (since October 5, 2026); each is recorded at publication with a condition, deadline and data source and checked automatically against public HTX prices and FRED data, with no cherry-picking or manual edits.

✅ BTC will not post an hourly close above 86,964 from Oct 5 12:00 to Oct 6 08:40 MSK (the committee's bearish scenario will not be invalidated).
✅ The 10-year UST yield (FRED DGS10, daily values) will not fall below 5.05% on any day from Oct 5 to Oct 12 inclusive (the high-rate regime will persist).

This material is for information and research purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice, an offer or a solicitation to trade. Trading crypto assets, commodities and leveraged instruments involves high risk, including the total loss of funds. Past results and forecasts do not guarantee future returns. You make your own decisions.

Sources: public market data — HTX, OKX, CoinMarketCap, FRED, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, DefiLlama, Farside (spot ETF flows), alternative.me; economic calendar. The issue is assembled automatically from the materials of the AKSHAR GROUP research committee's morning session (08:00–08:40 MSK); all figures are as of the session, “n/a” means no verified source. The committee's written commentary is published in the Russian edition only.