AKSHAR GROUP · Cross-market review: from macro to crypto assets

Summary

Forecast for the day: consolidation with a downside bias. World: UST 10Y 5.223% and the dollar (DXY 102.00, −0.14% on the day) set tight financial conditions, while the stock market is calm (VIX 15.4). Transmission to crypto runs mainly through: rates, stock-market risk appetite, ETF flows (ETH); BTC correlation with Nasdaq 0.66, with DXY −0.23; BTC ETFs −163.3 $m over 5 days. Crypto assets: BTC 82,402 (−0.26% over 24h, daily range 80,351–83,249), 1 of 15 radar assets rose over the day.

1. World: rates, dollar, liquidity

Metric	Value	Δ day	Δ 5 sessions	As of
UST 10Y, %	5.223	−0.8 bp	−5.4 bp	Oct 9 08:05 MSK, CNBC
UST 2Y, %	4.751	—	−2.9 bp	Oct 9 08:05 MSK, CNBC
10Y−2Y spread, bp	47	—	—	Oct 9 08:05 MSK, calc.
10Y real yield (TIPS), %	2.92	+1.0 bp	−1.0 bp	Oct 7, FRED
DXY	102.00	−0.14%	+0.07%	Oct 9 08:05 MSK, CNBC
USDJPY	158.08	+0.01%	+0.10%	Oct 9, Yahoo
EURUSD	1.1233	+0.29%	−0.15%	Oct 9, Yahoo
Fed net liquidity, $bn	5,865	—	+82 $bn/wk	Oct 7, FRED (WALCL−TGA−RRP)
HY spread (OAS), %	3.09	+6.0 bp	−3.0 bp	Oct 7, FRED
S&P 500	7,765.36	−0.47%	+1.29%	Oct 8, Yahoo
Nasdaq Composite	27,193.34	−1.25%	+1.20%	Oct 8, Yahoo
VIX	15.41	+0.3 pts	−1.0 pts	Oct 8, Yahoo
Gold, $/oz	4,204.20	+1.14%	+1.01%	Oct 9, Yahoo
WTI crude, $	90.30	−1.30%	−0.89%	Oct 9, Yahoo
Brent crude, $	102.94	−1.28%	+0.67%	Oct 9, Yahoo
Copper, $/lb	6.64	+1.79%	+2.22%	Oct 9, Yahoo
Nikkei 225	68,897.55	−0.21%	+0.86%	Oct 9, Yahoo

Rates: UST 10Y 5.223%, 2Y 4.751%, 10Y−2Y curve 47 bp; 10Y −5.4 bp over 5 sessions. Yields above 5% keep the cost of money high: the riskless alternative competes with assets that pay no coupon, which limits inflows into crypto and gold. Real yield 2.92% (Oct 7).
Dollar: DXY 102.00 (−0.14% on the day, +0.07% over 5 sessions), USDJPY 158.08.
Liquidity: Fed net liquidity $5,865bn as of Oct 7 (+82 $bn over the week) — dollar liquidity is expanding — support for risk. HY credit spread 3.09% (−3 bp over 5 days, Oct 7).
Stocks and volatility: S&P 500 7,765.36 (+1.29% over 5 sessions, Oct 8), Nasdaq Composite 27,193.34 (+1.20% over 5 sessions, Oct 8), VIX 15.41 (−0.98 pts over 5 sessions, Oct 8). Low implied stock volatility points to calm risk appetite in the stock market; crypto is not receiving a stress impulse from there.
Commodities: Gold 4,204.20 (+1.01% over 5 sessions), WTI crude 90.30 (−0.89% over 5 sessions), Brent crude 102.94 (+0.67% over 5 sessions).
Where money is going (5 sessions): leaders — copper +2.2%, US stocks +1.3%, Nasdaq +1.2%; laggards — oil −0.9%, bitcoin −3.0%, ether −7.5%.

2. Transmission to crypto

Channel	Metric	Value
Institutional demand	BTC ETFs	−484.9 $m (Oct 7); 5d −163.3; 20d +1,881.2
Institutional demand	ETH ETFs	+1.3 $m (Oct 8, partial); 5d −449.7; 20d +215.2
Crypto liquidity	Stablecoins	$311.6bn; 7d +0.07; 30d +2.53
Leverage	BTC: funding / OI	−0.0037% / 8h; OI 1,846 $m (−2.0% on the day)
Leverage	ETH: funding / OI	+0.0100% / 8h; OI 526 $m (−9.0% on the day)
30d correlations	BTC vs Nasdaq / DXY / gold / ΔUS10Y	+0.66 / −0.23 / +0.43 / −0.42
Sentiment	Fear & Greed index	64 (greed, Oct 8)

BTC correlations over 30 trading days (daily returns): with Nasdaq +0.66, with DXY −0.23, with gold +0.43, with the change in the 10Y yield −0.42. The link with stocks is significant — BTC trades as a high-beta risk asset; the negative link with the dollar makes DXY a direct pressure channel.
US spot BTC ETFs: −484.9 $m on Oct 7, −163.3 $m over 5 days, +1,881.2 $m over 20 days.
US spot ETH ETFs: +1.3 $m on Oct 8 (partial data), −449.7 $m over 5 days, +215.2 $m over 20 days.
Stablecoins: market cap $311.6bn (+0.07 $bn over 7 days, +2.53 $bn over 30 days) — issuance is stable, no new liquidity inflow.
HTX derivatives — BTC: funding −0.0037% / 8h, OI 1,846 $m (−2.0% on the day); ETH: funding +0.0100% / 8h, OI 526 $m (−9.0% on the day); SOL: funding +0.0100% / 8h, OI 190 $m (−5.2% on the day). Median funding across 15 radar crypto instruments +0.0100% / 8h. Negative funding: leveraged demand is skewed short — a price rise may accelerate on short covering.
Fear & Greed index: 64 (greed), −10 over the week.

Dominant channels today: rates, stock-market risk appetite, ETF flows (ETH).

3. Crypto assets

Regime: Neutral-to-cautious: no clear edge, a moderately negative backdrop.

Regime: of 15 radar crypto assets, 0 are in an uptrend, 13 in a downtrend, the rest are range-bound; 0 show compressed volatility. Compression without a trend usually precedes a directional break — the direction will be set by the external impulse (rates, the dollar, flows).
Breadth: 1 of 15 rose over 24h; 2 of 14 altcoins outperformed BTC.
Rotation: BTC dominance 59.47% (+0.39 pp on the day), ETH/BTC −4.45% over 7 days. Rising dominance — capital is concentrating in the most liquid asset, typical of a cautious regime.
Relative strength vs BTC over 7 days: leaders — FIL +8.5 pp, TRX +4.1 pp, HYPE +0.5 pp; laggards — PEPE −11.3 pp, SUI −7.8 pp, ZEC −7.7 pp.

Instrument	Price	24h	7d vs BTC	Trend · stretch	Volatility	Support / resistance	24h range	Radar signal
BTC Bitcoin	82,402	−0.26%	—	▼ down ●●○	normal	81,100 / 83,249	80,351–83,249	none
ETH Ethereum	2,493.3	−2.66%	−4.2 pp	▼ down ●●●	normal	2,405.0 / 2,576.5	2,405.0–2,576.5	none
SOL Solana	110.51	−3.82%	−5.9 pp	▼ down ●●○	normal	105.61 / 112.10	105.61–115.77	none
DOGE Dogecoin	0.0853	−2.28%	−7.2 pp	▼ down ●●○	normal	0.0840 / 0.0866	0.0809–0.0884	none
XRP XRP	1.398	−0.22%	−4.0 pp	▼ down ●●○	normal	1.378 / 1.418	1.318–1.417	none
BNB BNB	742.99	−3.08%	−0.3 pp	▼ down ●●○	normal	731.41 / 753.03	716.30–771.60	none
HYPE Hyperliquid	85.729	−1.36%	+0.5 pp	▼ down ●●○	normal	84.400 / 86.957	82.634–87.684	none
ZEC Zcash	1,221.0	−1.64%	−7.7 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	1,111.3 / 1,255.5	1,111.3–1,255.5	none
ADA Cardano	0.2370	−6.06%	−3.4 pp	▼ down ●●○	normal	0.2234 / 0.2555	0.2234–0.2555	none
LTC Litecoin	64.110	−0.51%	−3.2 pp	▼ down ●●○	normal	60.900 / 65.260	60.900–64.890	none
SUI Sui	1.065	−5.27%	−7.8 pp	▼ down ●●○	normal	0.9971 / 1.140	0.9971–1.140	none
FIL Filecoin	1.078	+2.81%	+8.5 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	0.9847 / 1.103	0.9847–1.103	none
TRX TRON	0.3320	−0.87%	+4.1 pp	▼ down ●●○	normal	0.3311 / 0.3330	0.3316–0.3365	none
PEPE Pepe	0.0₅3935	−2.37%	−11.3 pp	▼ down ●●○	normal	0.0₅3636 / 0.0₅4010	0.0₅3636–0.0₅4080	none
LINK Chainlink	12.876	−1.54%	−7.3 pp	▼ down ●●○	normal	12.060 / 13.215	12.060–13.215	none
XAU Gold	4,194.7	+1.32%	—	▲ up ●○○	normal	4,134.0 / 4,222.7	4,113.8–4,194.7	none
USOIL WTI crude	90.100	+0.41%	—	◆ range ○○○	normal	89.750 / 92.750	89.750–92.750	none
BRENTOIL Brent crude	101.55	−0.09%	—	◆ range ○○○	normal	98.500 / 104.87	98.500–104.87	none

Price snapshot: 08:20 MSK (05:20 UTC), public HTX quotes. Trend — price position relative to EMA50/EMA200 on the hourly chart; dots — how far price has moved from EMA200, in ATR. This describes the current state; it is not a forecast or a signal. Levels — largest order-book clusters within ±4% and 24-hour extremes. “7d vs BTC” — 7-day return difference vs BTC.

4. Scenarios

Base case. Consolidation with a downside bias. BTC stays within the last day's range (80,351–83,249). While UST yields stay above 5%, the external backdrop brings no new demand; with compressed volatility, false breaks of the range are more likely than a sustained trend.

Alternative case. A BTC break above the upper bound of the daily range on rising volume. The most likely trigger is lower yields and a weaker dollar after macro data; confirmation would be renewed spot ETF inflows and growth in stablecoin market cap.

What would change our view:

DXY: a reversal below the previous close would ease some pressure; now 102.00 (−0.14%).
Spot BTC ETF flows: a sign change in the 5-day sum (now −163.3 $m) would change the assessment of institutional demand.
Stablecoins: a weekly decline in market cap (now +0.07 $bn) would signal liquidity leaving crypto.

Catalysts — today and next 24h:

Oct 9 17:00 MSK · 14:00 UTC — UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations, Preliminary (Oct)
not earlier than Oct 9 17:12 MSK · 14:12 UTC — XRPL amendment fixBatchV1_2 - earliest activation (if >=80% support holds)
not earlier than Oct 9 17:46 MSK · 14:46 UTC — XRPL amendment BatchV1_1 - earliest activation (if >=80% support holds)
Oct 9 20:00 MSK · 17:00 UTC — Baker Hughes US rig count
Oct 9 23:00 MSK · 20:00 UTC — Fed speech: Boston Fed President Collins

Risks of the day:

Thin liquidity: higher risk of false breakouts, slippage and sharp sell-offs.
Volatility window around the release of “UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations, Preliminary (Oct)”: 16:45–17:30 MSK (13:45–14:30 UTC).
Volatility window around the release of “Fed speech: Boston Fed President Collins”: 22:45–23:30 MSK (19:45–20:30 UTC).

5. Verification: forecast track record

Published: 2 · Checked: 1 · Correct: 1

The hit rate will appear after 20 checked statements. Only statements from public issues count (since October 5, 2026); each is recorded at publication with a condition, deadline and data source and checked automatically against public HTX prices and FRED data, with no cherry-picking or manual edits.

✅ BTC will not post an hourly close above 86,964 from Oct 5 12:00 to Oct 6 08:40 MSK (the committee's bearish scenario will not be invalidated).

This material is for information and research purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice, an offer or a solicitation to trade. Trading crypto assets, commodities and leveraged instruments involves high risk, including the total loss of funds. Past results and forecasts do not guarantee future returns. You make your own decisions.

Sources: public market data — HTX, OKX, CoinMarketCap, FRED, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, DefiLlama, Farside (spot ETF flows), alternative.me; economic calendar. The issue is assembled automatically from the materials of the AKSHAR GROUP research committee's morning session (08:00–08:40 MSK); all figures are as of the session, “n/a” means no verified source. The committee's written commentary is published in the Russian edition only.