AKSHAR GROUP · Cross-market review: from macro to crypto assets

Summary

Forecast for the day: range 80,961–84,348 without a clear direction. World: UST 10Y 5.24% and the dollar (DXY 102.43, −0.14% on the day) set tight financial conditions, while the stock market is calm (VIX 15.2). Transmission to crypto runs mainly through: rates, stock-market risk appetite, ETF flows (BTC), ETF flows (ETH), stablecoin liquidity; BTC correlation with Nasdaq 0.68, with DXY −0.16; BTC ETFs −678.9 $m over 5 days. Crypto assets: BTC 83,420 (−0.81% over 24h, daily range 80,961–84,348), 0 of 15 radar assets rose over the day.

1. World: rates, dollar, liquidity

Metric	Value	Δ day	Δ 5 sessions	As of
UST 10Y, %	5.240	−0.4 bp	−7.1 bp	close Oct 12, Yahoo
UST 2Y, %	4.750	−2.0 bp	−3.0 bp	Oct 8, FRED
10Y−2Y spread, bp	49	—	—	Oct 8, calc.
10Y real yield (TIPS), %	2.87	−5.0 bp	−1.0 bp	Oct 8, FRED
DXY	102.43	−0.14%	+0.59%	Oct 13, Yahoo
USDJPY	158.27	+0.13%	+0.34%	Oct 13, Yahoo
EURUSD	1.1174	−0.34%	−0.71%	Oct 13, Yahoo
Fed net liquidity, $bn	5,865	—	+82 $bn/wk	Oct 7, FRED (WALCL−TGA−RRP)
HY spread (OAS), %	3.15	+6.0 bp	−9.0 bp	Oct 8, FRED
S&P 500	7,807.24	−0.06%	+0.43%	Oct 12, Yahoo
Nasdaq Composite	27,245.90	−0.44%	−0.84%	Oct 12, Yahoo
VIX	15.21	+0.4 pts	−0.3 pts	Oct 12, Yahoo
Gold, $/oz	4,215.90	+0.60%	+0.69%	Oct 13, Yahoo
WTI crude, $	92.59	−1.23%	+3.52%	Oct 13, Yahoo
Brent crude, $	105.43	−1.14%	+4.82%	Oct 13, Yahoo
Copper, $/lb	6.74	+0.63%	+2.21%	Oct 13, Yahoo
Nikkei 225	67,549.66	−2.15%	−3.43%	Oct 13, Yahoo

Rates: UST 10Y 5.240%, 2Y 4.750%, 10Y−2Y curve 49 bp; 10Y −7.1 bp over 5 sessions. Yields above 5% keep the cost of money high: the riskless alternative competes with assets that pay no coupon, which limits inflows into crypto and gold. Real yield 2.87% (Oct 8).
Dollar: DXY 102.43 (−0.14% on the day, +0.59% over 5 sessions), USDJPY 158.27.
Liquidity: Fed net liquidity $5,865bn as of Oct 7 (+82 $bn over the week) — dollar liquidity is expanding — support for risk. HY credit spread 3.15% (−9 bp over 5 days, Oct 8).
Stocks and volatility: S&P 500 7,807.24 (+0.43% over 5 sessions, Oct 12), Nasdaq Composite 27,245.90 (−0.84% over 5 sessions, Oct 12), VIX 15.21 (−0.31 pts over 5 sessions, Oct 12). Low implied stock volatility points to calm risk appetite in the stock market; crypto is not receiving a stress impulse from there.
Commodities: Gold 4,215.90 (+0.69% over 5 sessions), WTI crude 92.59 (+3.52% over 5 sessions), Brent crude 105.43 (+4.82% over 5 sessions).
Where money is going (5 sessions): leaders — oil +3.5%, copper +2.2%, gold +0.7%; laggards — Nasdaq −0.8%, ether −2.4%, Japan −3.4%.

2. Transmission to crypto

Channel	Metric	Value
Institutional demand	BTC ETFs	+21.1 $m (Oct 9); 5d −678.9; 20d +1,954.1
Institutional demand	ETH ETFs	−56.1 $m (Oct 9); 5d −542.2; 20d −131.1
Crypto liquidity	Stablecoins	$311.0bn; 7d −1.66; 30d +2.30
Leverage	BTC: funding / OI	−0.0027% / 8h; OI 1,818 $m (−2.3% on the day)
Leverage	ETH: funding / OI	+0.0013% / 8h; OI 421 $m (−12.1% on the day)
30d correlations	BTC vs Nasdaq / DXY / gold / ΔUS10Y	+0.68 / −0.16 / +0.39 / −0.36
Sentiment	Fear & Greed index	61 (greed, Oct 11)

BTC correlations over 30 trading days (daily returns): with Nasdaq +0.68, with DXY −0.16, with gold +0.39, with the change in the 10Y yield −0.36. The link with stocks is significant — BTC trades as a high-beta risk asset; the daily link with the dollar is currently weak.
US spot BTC ETFs: +21.1 $m on Oct 9, −678.9 $m over 5 days, +1,954.1 $m over 20 days.
US spot ETH ETFs: −56.1 $m on Oct 9, −542.2 $m over 5 days, −131.1 $m over 20 days.
Stablecoins: market cap $311.0bn (−1.66 $bn over 7 days, +2.30 $bn over 30 days) — issuance is shrinking: liquidity is leaving the crypto system.
HTX derivatives — BTC: funding −0.0027% / 8h, OI 1,818 $m (−2.3% on the day); ETH: funding +0.0013% / 8h, OI 421 $m (−12.1% on the day); SOL: funding +0.0100% / 8h, OI 183 $m (−5.0% on the day). Negative funding: leveraged demand is skewed short — a price rise may accelerate on short covering.
Fear & Greed index: 61 (greed), −4 over the week.

Dominant channels today: rates, stock-market risk appetite, ETF flows (BTC), ETF flows (ETH), stablecoin liquidity.

3. Crypto assets

Regime: Neutral: no pronounced market direction.

Regime: of 15 radar crypto assets, 0 are in an uptrend, 5 in a downtrend, the rest are range-bound; 0 show compressed volatility. Compression without a trend usually precedes a directional break — the direction will be set by the external impulse (rates, the dollar, flows).
Breadth: 0 of 15 rose over 24h; 1 of 14 altcoins outperformed BTC.
Rotation: BTC dominance 59.79% (+0.44 pp on the day), ETH/BTC −4.41% over 7 days. Rising dominance — capital is concentrating in the most liquid asset, typical of a cautious regime.
Relative strength vs BTC over 7 days: leaders — FIL +2.1 pp, TRX +0.7 pp, BNB −2.1 pp; laggards — ADA −9.2 pp, HYPE −8.9 pp, SUI −8.5 pp.

Instrument	Price	24h	7d vs BTC	Trend · stretch	Volatility	Support / resistance	24h range	Radar signal
BTC Bitcoin	83,420	−0.81%	—	◆ range ○○○	high	80,961 / 84,348	80,961–84,348	none
ETH Ethereum	2,516.7	−1.91%	−4.3 pp	◆ range ○○○	high	2,407.5 / 2,578.4	2,407.5–2,578.4	none
SOL Solana	108.02	−4.52%	−7.5 pp	◆ range ○○○	high	101.58 / 113.35	101.58–113.35	none
DOGE Dogecoin	0.0846	−3.78%	−8.2 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	0.0800 / 0.0881	0.0800–0.0881	none
XRP XRP	1.368	−3.57%	−6.2 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	1.310 / 1.421	1.310–1.421	none
BNB BNB	744.50	−1.35%	−2.1 pp	◆ range ○○○	high	721.80 / 757.80	721.80–757.80	none
HYPE Hyperliquid	82.552	−6.04%	−8.9 pp	▼ down ●●○	normal	79.418 / 88.073	79.418–88.073	none
ZEC Zcash	1,215.0	−9.45%	−6.7 pp	▼ down ●○○	normal	1,122.6 / 1,347.5	1,122.6–1,347.5	none
ADA Cardano	0.2379	−6.60%	−9.2 pp	▼ down ●○○	normal	0.2240 / 0.2559	0.2240–0.2559	none
LTC Litecoin	61.990	−5.34%	−8.3 pp	▼ down ●●○	normal	59.360 / 65.840	59.360–65.840	none
SUI Sui	1.062	−6.47%	−8.5 pp	▼ down ●○○	normal	0.9930 / 1.138	0.9930–1.138	none
FIL Filecoin	1.171	−5.69%	+2.1 pp	◆ range ○○○	high	1.070 / 1.264	1.070–1.264	none
TRX TRON	0.3300	−0.68%	+0.7 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	0.3277 / 0.3325	0.3277–0.3325	none
PEPE Pepe	0.0₅4052	−6.20%	−3.5 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	0.0₅3759 / 0.0₅4330	0.0₅3759–0.0₅4330	none
LINK Chainlink	13.009	−3.33%	−3.3 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	12.247 / 13.498	12.247–13.498	none
XAU Gold	4,201.7	0.00%	—	▲ up ●○○	normal	4,160.0 / 4,202.2	4,160.0–4,202.2	none
USOIL WTI crude	91.970	+2.25%	—	◆ range ○○○	normal	89.980 / 93.650	89.980–93.650	none
BRENTOIL Brent crude	102.76	+1.52%	—	◆ range ○○○	normal	101.24 / 104.72	101.24–104.72	none

Price snapshot: 08:40 MSK (05:40 UTC), public HTX quotes. Trend — price position relative to EMA50/EMA200 on the hourly chart; dots — how far price has moved from EMA200, in ATR. This describes the current state; it is not a forecast or a signal. Levels — largest order-book clusters within ±4% and 24-hour extremes. “7d vs BTC” — 7-day return difference vs BTC.

4. Scenarios

Base case. Range trading: BTC within 80,961–84,348; no directional impulse from macro or flows.

Alternative case. A BTC break above the upper bound of the daily range on rising volume. The most likely trigger is lower yields and a weaker dollar after macro data; confirmation would be renewed spot ETF inflows and growth in stablecoin market cap.

What would change our view:

DXY: a reversal below the previous close would ease some pressure; now 102.43 (−0.14%).
Spot BTC ETF flows: a sign change in the 5-day sum (now −678.9 $m) would change the assessment of institutional demand.
Stablecoins: a weekly decline in market cap (now −1.66 $bn) would signal liquidity leaving crypto.

Catalysts — today and next 24h:

No major scheduled events.

Risks of the day:

5. Verification: forecast track record

Published: 2 · Checked: 2 · Correct: 2

The hit rate will appear after 20 checked statements. Only statements from public issues count (since October 5, 2026); each is recorded at publication with a condition, deadline and data source and checked automatically against public HTX prices and FRED data, with no cherry-picking or manual edits.

✅ BTC will not post an hourly close above 86,964 from Oct 5 12:00 to Oct 6 08:40 MSK (the committee's bearish scenario will not be invalidated).
✅ The 10-year UST yield (FRED DGS10, daily values) will not fall below 5.05% on any day from Oct 5 to Oct 12 inclusive (the high-rate regime will persist).

This material is for information and research purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice, an offer or a solicitation to trade. Trading crypto assets, commodities and leveraged instruments involves high risk, including the total loss of funds. Past results and forecasts do not guarantee future returns. You make your own decisions.

Sources: public market data — HTX, OKX, CoinMarketCap, FRED, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, DefiLlama, Farside (spot ETF flows), alternative.me; economic calendar. The issue is assembled automatically from the materials of the AKSHAR GROUP research committee's morning session (08:00–08:40 MSK); all figures are as of the session, “n/a” means no verified source. The committee's written commentary is published in the Russian edition only.