AKSHAR GROUP · Cross-market review: from macro to crypto assets

Summary

Forecast for the day: consolidation with a downside bias. World: UST 10Y 5.244% and the dollar (DXY 102.21, +0.07% on the day) set tight financial conditions, while the stock market is calm (VIX 14.8). Transmission to crypto runs mainly through: rates, stock-market risk appetite, ETF flows (BTC), ETF flows (ETH); BTC correlation with Nasdaq 0.68, with DXY −0.22; BTC ETFs −510.1 $m over 5 days. Crypto assets: BTC 82,978 (+0.40% over 24h, daily range 82,602–83,130), 7 of 15 radar assets rose over the day.

1. World: rates, dollar, liquidity

Metric	Value	Δ day	Δ 5 sessions	As of
UST 10Y, %	5.244	+1.3 bp	−3.3 bp	close Oct 9, Yahoo
UST 2Y, %	4.750	−2.0 bp	−3.0 bp	Oct 8, FRED
10Y−2Y spread, bp	49	—	—	Oct 8, calc.
10Y real yield (TIPS), %	2.87	−5.0 bp	−1.0 bp	Oct 8, FRED
DXY	102.21	+0.07%	+0.27%	Oct 9, Yahoo
USDJPY	158.25	+0.12%	+0.32%	Oct 9, Yahoo
EURUSD	1.1206	−0.06%	−0.43%	Oct 9, Yahoo
Fed net liquidity, $bn	5,865	—	+82 $bn/wk	Oct 7, FRED (WALCL−TGA−RRP)
HY spread (OAS), %	3.15	+6.0 bp	−9.0 bp	Oct 8, FRED
S&P 500	7,811.54	+0.59%	+1.15%	Oct 9, Yahoo
Nasdaq Composite	27,366.17	+0.64%	+0.64%	Oct 9, Yahoo
VIX	14.84	−0.6 pts	−0.5 pts	Oct 9, Yahoo
Gold, $/oz	4,216.30	+1.43%	+1.30%	Oct 9, Yahoo
WTI crude, $	91.85	+0.39%	+0.81%	Oct 9, Yahoo
Brent crude, $	104.72	+0.42%	+2.42%	Oct 9, Yahoo
Copper, $/lb	6.69	+2.65%	+3.08%	Oct 9, Yahoo
Nikkei 225	69,030.92	−0.02%	+1.06%	Oct 9, Yahoo

Rates: UST 10Y 5.244%, 2Y 4.750%, 10Y−2Y curve 49 bp; 10Y −3.3 bp over 5 sessions. Yields above 5% keep the cost of money high: the riskless alternative competes with assets that pay no coupon, which limits inflows into crypto and gold. Real yield 2.87% (Oct 8).
Dollar: DXY 102.21 (+0.07% on the day, +0.27% over 5 sessions), USDJPY 158.25.
Liquidity: Fed net liquidity $5,865bn as of Oct 7 (+82 $bn over the week) — dollar liquidity is expanding — support for risk. HY credit spread 3.15% (−9 bp over 5 days, Oct 8).
Stocks and volatility: S&P 500 7,811.54 (+1.15% over 5 sessions, Oct 9), Nasdaq Composite 27,366.17 (+0.64% over 5 sessions, Oct 9), VIX 14.84 (−0.47 pts over 5 sessions, Oct 9). Low implied stock volatility points to calm risk appetite in the stock market; crypto is not receiving a stress impulse from there.
Commodities: Gold 4,216.30 (+1.30% over 5 sessions), WTI crude 91.85 (+0.81% over 5 sessions), Brent crude 104.72 (+2.42% over 5 sessions).
Where money is going (5 sessions): leaders — copper +3.1%, gold +1.3%, US stocks +1.1%; laggards — Germany −0.6%, bitcoin −3.3%, ether −7.6%.

2. Transmission to crypto

Channel	Metric	Value
Institutional demand	BTC ETFs	−244.1 $m (Oct 8); 5d −510.1; 20d +1,919.8
Institutional demand	ETH ETFs	−72.5 $m (Oct 8); 5d −523.5; 20d +141.4
Crypto liquidity	Stablecoins	$311.1bn; 7d −0.90; 30d +2.52
Leverage	BTC: funding / OI	−0.0091% / 8h; OI 1,841 $m (−0.3% on the day)
Leverage	ETH: funding / OI	+0.0047% / 8h; OI 494 $m (−6.1% on the day)
30d correlations	BTC vs Nasdaq / DXY / gold / ΔUS10Y	+0.68 / −0.22 / +0.45 / −0.36
Sentiment	Fear & Greed index	59 (greed, Oct 9)

BTC correlations over 30 trading days (daily returns): with Nasdaq +0.68, with DXY −0.22, with gold +0.45, with the change in the 10Y yield −0.36. The link with stocks is significant — BTC trades as a high-beta risk asset; the negative link with the dollar makes DXY a direct pressure channel.
US spot BTC ETFs: −244.1 $m on Oct 8, −510.1 $m over 5 days, +1,919.8 $m over 20 days.
US spot ETH ETFs: −72.5 $m on Oct 8, −523.5 $m over 5 days, +141.4 $m over 20 days.
Stablecoins: market cap $311.1bn (−0.90 $bn over 7 days, +2.52 $bn over 30 days) — issuance is shrinking: liquidity is leaving the crypto system.
HTX derivatives — BTC: funding −0.0091% / 8h, OI 1,841 $m (−0.3% on the day); ETH: funding +0.0047% / 8h, OI 494 $m (−6.1% on the day); SOL: funding +0.0100% / 8h, OI 188 $m (−1.0% on the day). Negative funding: leveraged demand is skewed short — a price rise may accelerate on short covering.
Fear & Greed index: 59 (greed), −13 over the week.

Dominant channels today: rates, stock-market risk appetite, ETF flows (BTC), ETF flows (ETH).

3. Crypto assets

Regime: Neutral-to-cautious: no clear edge, a moderately negative backdrop.

Regime: of 15 radar crypto assets, 0 are in an uptrend, 5 in a downtrend, the rest are range-bound; 15 show compressed volatility. Compression without a trend usually precedes a directional break — the direction will be set by the external impulse (rates, the dollar, flows).
Breadth: 7 of 15 rose over 24h; 5 of 14 altcoins outperformed BTC.
Rotation: BTC dominance 59.52% (+0.05 pp on the day), ETH/BTC −4.87% over 7 days. No material rotation between BTC and altcoins.
Relative strength vs BTC over 7 days: leaders — FIL +4.3 pp, ADA +3.7 pp, TRX +0.7 pp; laggards — LTC −7.5 pp, SOL −7.0 pp, DOGE −5.6 pp.

Instrument	Price	24h	7d vs BTC	Trend · stretch	Volatility	Support / resistance	24h range	Radar signal
BTC Bitcoin	82,978	+0.40%	—	◆ range ○○○	compressed	82,602 / 83,130	82,602–83,130	none
ETH Ethereum	2,505.7	+0.48%	−4.8 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	2,491.0 / 2,518.3	2,491.0–2,518.3	none
SOL Solana	109.54	−0.24%	−7.0 pp	▼ down ●●●	compressed	108.89 / 110.74	108.89–110.74	none
DOGE Dogecoin	0.0855	−0.89%	−5.6 pp	▼ down ●●●	compressed	0.0848 / 0.0866	0.0848–0.0866	none
XRP XRP	1.396	−0.79%	−4.2 pp	▼ down ●●●	compressed	1.387 / 1.412	1.387–1.412	none
BNB BNB	747.90	+0.15%	−2.5 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	744.50 / 753.60	744.50–753.60	none
HYPE Hyperliquid	85.048	+1.21%	−3.1 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	83.695 / 86.732	83.695–86.732	none
ZEC Zcash	1,229.7	+0.80%	−4.4 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	1,214.6 / 1,242.0	1,214.6–1,242.0	none
ADA Cardano	0.2472	−1.51%	+3.7 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	0.2453 / 0.2594	0.2453–0.2594	none
LTC Litecoin	63.510	−0.08%	−7.5 pp	▼ down ●●●	compressed	63.050 / 64.390	63.050–64.390	none
SUI Sui	1.102	+0.91%	−4.6 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	1.088 / 1.139	1.088–1.139	none
FIL Filecoin	1.090	−6.67%	+4.3 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	1.073 / 1.176	1.073–1.176	none
TRX TRON	0.3303	−0.08%	+0.7 pp	▼ down ●●●	compressed	0.3296 / 0.3314	0.3296–0.3314	none
PEPE Pepe	0.0₅4011	−0.25%	−4.2 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	0.0₅3971 / 0.0₅4076	0.0₅3971–0.0₅4076	none
LINK Chainlink	12.935	+0.98%	−5.5 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	12.797 / 13.245	12.797–13.245	none
XAU Gold	4,197.7	+0.01%	—	▲ up ●●●	compressed	4,195.9 / 4,199.8	4,195.9–4,199.8	none
USOIL WTI crude	91.170	+0.42%	—	▲ up ●●○	compressed	90.730 / 91.270	90.730–91.270	none
BRENTOIL Brent crude	102.48	+0.67%	—	▲ up ●●●	compressed	101.74 / 102.49	101.74–102.49	none

Price snapshot: 08:44 MSK (05:44 UTC), public HTX quotes. Trend — price position relative to EMA50/EMA200 on the hourly chart; dots — how far price has moved from EMA200, in ATR. This describes the current state; it is not a forecast or a signal. Levels — largest order-book clusters within ±4% and 24-hour extremes. “7d vs BTC” — 7-day return difference vs BTC.

4. Scenarios

Base case. Consolidation with a downside bias. BTC stays within the last day's range (82,602–83,130). While UST yields stay above 5%, the external backdrop brings no new demand; with compressed volatility, false breaks of the range are more likely than a sustained trend.

Alternative case. A BTC break above the upper bound of the daily range on rising volume. The most likely trigger is lower yields and a weaker dollar after macro data; confirmation would be renewed spot ETF inflows and growth in stablecoin market cap.

What would change our view:

DXY: a reversal below the previous close would ease some pressure; now 102.21 (+0.07%).
Spot BTC ETF flows: a sign change in the 5-day sum (now −510.1 $m) would change the assessment of institutional demand.
Stablecoins: a weekly decline in market cap (now −0.90 $bn) would signal liquidity leaving crypto.

Catalysts — today and next 24h:

No major scheduled events.

Later this week:

Oct 14 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC — Core CPI MoM (Sep)
Oct 14 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC — Core CPI YoY (Sep)
Oct 14 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC — CPI MoM (Sep)
Oct 14 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC — CPI YoY (Sep)
Oct 14 21:00 MSK · 18:00 UTC — Fed Beige Book

Risks of the day:

Thin liquidity: higher risk of false breakouts, slippage and sharp sell-offs.

5. Verification: forecast track record

Published: 2 · Checked: 1 · Correct: 1

The hit rate will appear after 20 checked statements. Only statements from public issues count (since October 5, 2026); each is recorded at publication with a condition, deadline and data source and checked automatically against public HTX prices and FRED data, with no cherry-picking or manual edits.

✅ BTC will not post an hourly close above 86,964 from Oct 5 12:00 to Oct 6 08:40 MSK (the committee's bearish scenario will not be invalidated).

This material is for information and research purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice, an offer or a solicitation to trade. Trading crypto assets, commodities and leveraged instruments involves high risk, including the total loss of funds. Past results and forecasts do not guarantee future returns. You make your own decisions.

Sources: public market data — HTX, OKX, CoinMarketCap, FRED, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, DefiLlama, Farside (spot ETF flows), alternative.me; economic calendar. The issue is assembled automatically from the materials of the AKSHAR GROUP research committee's morning session (08:00–08:40 MSK); all figures are as of the session, “n/a” means no verified source. The committee's written commentary is published in the Russian edition only.