AKSHAR GROUP · Cross-market review: from macro to crypto assets

Summary

BTC 24h outlook: range 79,550–82,270 (68% probability) without a clear direction. World: UST 10Y 4.988% and the dollar (DXY 101.81, +0.20% on the day) set tight financial conditions. Transmission to crypto runs mainly through: stock-market risk appetite, ETF flows (BTC), stablecoin liquidity; BTC correlation with Nasdaq 0.64, with DXY −0.05; BTC ETFs +301.2 $m over 5 days. Crypto assets: BTC 80,896 (+0.05% over 24h, daily range 79,168–81,008), 4 of 15 radar assets rose over the day.

Takeaway of the day

Thesis: a 68% probability that BTC ends the day within 79,550–82,270 (±1.67%), no clear bias.
Asymmetry: range bounds at +1.70% and −1.66%; no nearby liquidation clusters.
Invalidation: an hourly close above 82,270 or below 79,550 puts the base case at risk and the view is reviewed (the forecast is scored on the hourly close at 08:00 MSK).
What to watch: inside the range, breaks without volume tend to fail; an upside exit is confirmed by ETF inflows and stablecoin growth; a downside exit by wider credit spreads and a stronger dollar.
This describes the market picture; it is not investment advice.

What changed since yesterday

HY spread: +13.0 bp since the previous issue (now 3.40%).
10Y real yield: −12.0 bp since the previous issue (now 2.64%).
BTC ETFs: −137.9 $m on 10-23; 5-day sum +356.7 → +301.2 $m.

1. World: rates, dollar, liquidity

Metric	Value	Δ day	Δ 5 sessions	As of
UST 10Y, %	4.988	+3.5 bp	−11.0 bp	close Oct 23, Yahoo
UST 2Y, %	4.650	−16.0 bp	−12.0 bp	Oct 22, FRED
10Y−2Y spread, bp	34	—	—	Oct 22, calc.
10Y real yield (TIPS), %	2.64	−12.0 bp	−14.0 bp	Oct 22, FRED
DXY	101.81	+0.20%	−0.03%	Oct 23, Yahoo
USDJPY	156.81	+0.20%	−0.63%	Oct 23, Yahoo
EURUSD	1.1204	−0.15%	−0.19%	Oct 23, Yahoo
Fed net liquidity, $bn	5,801	—	−71 $bn/wk	Oct 21, FRED (WALCL−TGA−RRP)
HY spread (OAS), %	3.40	+13.0 bp	+17.0 bp	Oct 22, FRED
S&P 500	7,623.68	−0.52%	−0.47%	Oct 23, Yahoo
Nasdaq Composite	25,955.34	−0.21%	−0.71%	Oct 23, Yahoo
VIX	19.45	+0.4 pts	−0.5 pts	Oct 23, Yahoo
Gold, $/oz	4,007.90	−1.29%	−4.14%	Oct 23, Yahoo
WTI crude, $	103.27	—	+1.83%	Oct 23, Yahoo
Brent crude, $	111.70	−1.30%	+1.67%	Oct 23, Yahoo
Copper, $/lb	6.51	+2.28%	−0.36%	Oct 23, Yahoo
Nikkei 225	62,693.16	−0.34%	−4.03%	Oct 23, Yahoo

Rates: UST 10Y 4.988%, 2Y 4.650%, 10Y−2Y curve 34 bp; 10Y −11.0 bp over 5 sessions. Real yield 2.64% (Oct 22).
Dollar: DXY 101.81 (+0.20% on the day, −0.03% over 5 sessions), USDJPY 156.81.
Liquidity: Fed net liquidity $5,801bn as of Oct 21 (−71 $bn over the week). HY credit spread 3.40% (+17 bp over 5 days, Oct 22).
Stocks and volatility: S&P 500 7,623.68 (−0.47% over 5 sessions, Oct 23), Nasdaq Composite 25,955.34 (−0.71% over 5 sessions, Oct 23), VIX 19.45 (−0.54 pts over 5 sessions, Oct 23).
Commodities: Gold 4,007.90 (−4.14% over 5 sessions), WTI crude 103.27 (+1.83% over 5 sessions), Brent crude 111.70 (+1.67% over 5 sessions).
Where money is going (5 sessions): leaders — oil +1.8%, dollar −0.0%, copper −0.4%; laggards — Germany −1.7%, Japan −4.0%, gold −4.1%.

2. Transmission to crypto

Channel	Metric	Value
Institutional demand	BTC ETFs	−137.9 $m (Oct 23, partial); 5d +301.2; 20d −365.0
Institutional demand	ETH ETFs	+4.4 $m (Oct 23, partial); 5d −220.7; 20d −1,221.1
Crypto liquidity	Stablecoins	$302.6bn; 7d −2.04; 30d −3.19
Leverage (HTX only)	BTC: funding / OI	−0.0055% / 8h; OI 1,567 $m (n/a% on the day)
Leverage (HTX only)	ETH: funding / OI	−0.0005% / 8h; OI 80 $m (n/a% on the day)
30d correlations	BTC vs Nasdaq / DXY / gold / ΔUS10Y	+0.64 / −0.05 / +0.29 / +0.05
Sentiment	Fear & Greed index	54 (neutral, Oct 25)

BTC correlations over 30 trading days (daily returns): with Nasdaq +0.64, with DXY −0.05, with gold +0.29, with the change in the 10Y yield +0.05.
US spot BTC ETFs: −137.9 $m on Oct 23 (partial data), +301.2 $m over 5 days, −365.0 $m over 20 days.
US spot ETH ETFs: +4.4 $m on Oct 23 (partial data), −220.7 $m over 5 days, −1,221.1 $m over 20 days.
Stablecoins: market cap $302.6bn (−2.04 $bn over 7 days, −3.19 $bn over 30 days).
HTX derivatives — BTC: funding −0.0055% / 8h, OI 1,567 $m; ETH: funding −0.0005% / 8h, OI 80 $m; SOL: funding −0.0016% / 8h, OI 161 $m. Negative funding: leveraged demand is skewed short — a price rise may accelerate on short covering.
Fear & Greed index: 54 (neutral), +1 over the week.

Dominant channels today: stock-market risk appetite, ETF flows (BTC), stablecoin liquidity.

3. Crypto assets

Regime: Neutral: no pronounced market direction.

Regime: of 15 radar crypto assets, 1 are in an uptrend, 6 in a downtrend, the rest are range-bound; 9 show compressed volatility.
Breadth: 4 of 15 rose over 24h; 3 of 14 altcoins outperformed BTC.
Rotation: BTC dominance 60.06%, ETH/BTC −1.23% over 7 days.
Relative strength vs BTC over 7 days: leaders — PEPE +10.8 pp, ZEC +7.5 pp, BNB +3.4 pp; laggards — FIL −13.8 pp, ADA −8.2 pp, SUI −7.7 pp.

Instrument	Price	24h	7d vs BTC	Trend · stretch	Volatility	Support / resistance	24h range	Radar signal
BTC Bitcoin	80,896	+0.05%	—	◆ range ○○○	normal	79,168 / 81,008	79,168–81,008	none
ETH Ethereum	2,367.1	−0.62%	−1.2 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	2,281.0 / 2,383.3	2,281.0–2,383.3	none
SOL Solana	102.56	−0.09%	−0.8 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	98.540 / 102.72	98.540–102.72	none
DOGE Dogecoin	0.0779	−1.10%	−3.7 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	0.0747 / 0.0788	0.0747–0.0788	none
XRP XRP	1.313	+1.66%	−0.2 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	1.254 / 1.315	1.254–1.315	none
BNB BNB	748.20	+1.12%	+3.4 pp	▲ up ●○○	normal	717.20 / 748.70	717.20–748.70	none
HYPE Hyperliquid	76.731	−0.67%	−4.1 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	74.423 / 77.263	74.423–77.263	none
ZEC Zcash	1,218.1	+3.87%	+7.5 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	1,118.5 / 1,224.9	1,118.5–1,224.9	none
ADA Cardano	0.2078	−1.84%	−8.2 pp	▼ down ●●●	compressed	0.2003 / 0.2118	0.2003–0.2118	none
LTC Litecoin	56.970	−0.38%	−3.0 pp	▼ down ●●●	compressed	55.040 / 57.260	55.040–57.260	none
SUI Sui	0.9319	−3.16%	−7.7 pp	▼ down ●●●	compressed	0.9108 / 0.9624	0.9108–0.9624	none
FIL Filecoin	0.9326	−2.91%	−13.8 pp	▼ down ●●●	compressed	0.9087 / 0.9606	0.9087–0.9606	none
TRX TRON	0.3287	−0.38%	−0.1 pp	▼ down ●●○	compressed	0.3282 / 0.3304	0.3282–0.3304	none
PEPE Pepe	0.0₅4478	−1.58%	+10.8 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	0.0₅4231 / 0.0₅4553	0.0₅4231–0.0₅4553	none
LINK Chainlink	11.578	−2.38%	−6.0 pp	▼ down ●●●	compressed	11.228 / 11.860	11.228–11.860	none
XAU Gold	4,002.2	−0.09%	—	▼ down ●●●	compressed	3,981.2 / 4,006.8	3,981.2–4,006.8	none
USOIL WTI crude	103.16	−0.28%	—	▲ up ●●●	compressed	— / 104.62	103.16–104.62	none
BRENTOIL Brent crude	111.37	−0.22%	—	▲ up ●●●	compressed	— / 111.99	111.37–111.99	none

Price snapshot: 08:40 MSK (05:40 UTC), public HTX quotes. Trend — price position relative to EMA50/EMA200 on the hourly chart; dots — how far price has moved from EMA200, in ATR. This describes the current state; it is not a forecast or a signal. Levels — largest order-book clusters within ±4% and 24-hour extremes. “7d vs BTC” — 7-day return difference vs BTC.

4. Scenarios

Base case. Range trading: BTC within 79,550–82,270 (68% probability); no directional impulse from macro or flows.

Alternative case. A BTC break above the upper bound of the 68% range on rising volume. The most likely trigger is lower yields and a weaker dollar after macro data; confirmation would be renewed spot ETF inflows and growth in stablecoin market cap.

What would change our view:

DXY: a reversal below the previous close would ease some pressure; now 101.81 (+0.20%).
Spot BTC ETF flows: a sign change in the 5-day sum (now +301.2 $m) would change the assessment of institutional demand.
Stablecoins: a weekly decline in market cap (now −2.04 $bn) would signal liquidity leaving crypto.

Catalysts — today and next 24h:

No major scheduled events.

Risks of the day:

5. Verification: forecast track record

Published: 5 · Checked: 4 · Correct: 4

The hit rate will appear after 20 checked statements. Only statements from public issues count (since October 5, 2026); each is recorded at publication with a condition, deadline and data source and checked automatically against public HTX prices and FRED data, with no cherry-picking or manual edits.

✅ BTC will not post an hourly close above 86,964 from Oct 5 12:00 to Oct 6 08:40 MSK (the bearish scenario will not be invalidated).
✅ The 10-year UST yield (FRED DGS10, daily values) will not fall below 5.05% on any day from Oct 5 to Oct 12 inclusive (the high-rate regime will persist).
✅ BTC will close the hour ending 08:00 MSK on Oct 23 within 81,520–84,280 (±1σ of daily volatility, stated probability 68%).
✅ BTC will close the hour ending 08:00 MSK on Oct 24 within 80,210–82,930 (±1σ of daily volatility, stated probability 68%).

Retro run of the 68% method (computed after the fact, not in the main count): checked 17, correct 12; 68% range: 9 of 11; direction: 3 of 6.

Verifiable statements in this issue

BTC will close the hour ending 08:00 MSK on Oct 26 within 79,550–82,270 (±1σ of daily volatility, stated probability 68%). Checked against: HTX USDT perpetual BTC-USDT, hourly candles (close).

This material is for information and research purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice, an offer or a solicitation to trade. Trading crypto assets, commodities and leveraged instruments involves high risk, including the total loss of funds. Past results and forecasts do not guarantee future returns. You make your own decisions.

Sources: public market data — HTX, OKX, CoinMarketCap, FRED, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, DefiLlama, Farside (spot ETF flows), alternative.me; economic calendar. The issue is assembled automatically from the conclusions of the AKSHAR GROUP AI research consortium (macro, crypto, risk; forecast quality is checked by the Auditor) and market data; all figures are as of the snapshot, “n/a” means no verified source.