AKSHAR GROUP · Cross-market review: from macro to crypto assets

Summary

Forecast for the day: consolidation with a downside bias, with BTC failing to settle above 87,200. World: UST 10Y 5.32% and the dollar (DXY 102.18, +0.01% on the day) set tight financial conditions, while the stock market is calm (VIX 15.5). Transmission to crypto runs mainly through: rates, stock-market risk appetite; BTC correlation with Nasdaq 0.58, with DXY −0.23; BTC ETFs +185.7 $m over 5 days. Crypto assets: BTC 85,668 (+0.20% over 24h, daily range 84,938–86,687), 8 of 15 radar assets rose over the day.

1. World: rates, dollar, liquidity

Metric	Value	Δ day	Δ 5 sessions	As of
UST 10Y, %	5.320	+0.9 bp	+6.5 bp	Oct 6 08:00 MSK, CNBC
UST 2Y, %	4.829	—	−9.1 bp	Oct 6 08:00 MSK, CNBC
10Y−2Y spread, bp	49	—	—	Oct 6 08:00 MSK, calc.
10Y real yield (TIPS), %	2.92	+4.0 bp	+9.0 bp	Oct 2, FRED
DXY	102.18	+0.01%	+0.80%	Oct 6 08:00 MSK, CNBC
USDJPY	158.13	+0.25%	+0.49%	Oct 6, Yahoo
EURUSD	1.1221	−0.30%	−1.34%	Oct 6, Yahoo
Fed net liquidity, $bn	5,783	—	+13 $bn/wk	Sep 30, FRED (WALCL−TGA−RRP)
HY spread (OAS), %	3.10	−14.0 bp	+17.0 bp	Oct 2, FRED
S&P 500	7,773.95	+0.66%	+1.17%	Oct 5, Yahoo
Nasdaq Composite	27,477.31	+1.05%	+2.45%	Oct 5, Yahoo
VIX	15.52	+0.2 pts	−0.5 pts	Oct 5, Yahoo
Gold, $/oz	4,147.10	−0.23%	−0.78%	Oct 6, Yahoo
WTI crude, $	90.02	+0.66%	+0.72%	Oct 6, Yahoo
Brent crude, $	100.98	+0.66%	−1.57%	Oct 6, Yahoo
Copper, $/lb	6.65	+1.03%	+1.68%	Oct 6, Yahoo
Nikkei 225	70,469.24	+0.75%	+7.62%	Oct 6, Yahoo

Rates: UST 10Y 5.320%, 2Y 4.829%, 10Y−2Y curve 49 bp; 10Y +6.5 bp over 5 sessions. Yields above 5% keep the cost of money high: the riskless alternative competes with assets that pay no coupon, which limits inflows into crypto and gold. Real yield 2.92% (Oct 2).
Dollar: DXY 102.18 (+0.01% on the day, +0.80% over 5 sessions), USDJPY 158.13.
Liquidity: Fed net liquidity $5,783bn as of Sep 30 (+13 $bn over the week) — no material change. HY credit spread 3.10% (+17 bp over 5 days, Oct 2). Widening high-yield spreads are an early sign of falling appetite for credit risk, which usually spreads to crypto assets as well.
Stocks and volatility: S&P 500 7,773.95 (+1.17% over 5 sessions, Oct 5), Nasdaq Composite 27,477.31 (+2.45% over 5 sessions, Oct 5), VIX 15.52 (−0.55 pts over 5 sessions, Oct 5). Low implied stock volatility points to calm risk appetite in the stock market; crypto is not receiving a stress impulse from there.
Commodities: Gold 4,147.10 (−0.78% over 5 sessions), WTI crude 90.02 (+0.72% over 5 sessions), Brent crude 100.98 (−1.57% over 5 sessions).
Where money is going (5 sessions): leaders — Japan +7.6%, Nasdaq +2.5%, bitcoin +2.4%; laggards — ether +0.6%, Germany −0.5%, gold −0.8%.

2. Transmission to crypto

Channel	Metric	Value
Institutional demand	BTC ETFs	+102.7 $m (Oct 1); 5d +185.7; 20d +2,885.8
Institutional demand	ETH ETFs	−55.4 $m (Oct 1); 5d −13.7; 20d +813.2
Crypto liquidity	Stablecoins	$312.7bn; 7d +1.40; 30d +3.73
Leverage	BTC: funding / OI	+0.0036% / 8h; OI 1,991 $m (−0.5% on the day)
Leverage	ETH: funding / OI	+0.0028% / 8h; OI 644 $m (−2.2% on the day)
30d correlations	BTC vs Nasdaq / DXY / gold / ΔUS10Y	+0.58 / −0.23 / +0.47 / −0.33
Sentiment	Fear & Greed index	70 (greed, Oct 5)

BTC correlations over 30 trading days (daily returns): with Nasdaq +0.58, with DXY −0.23, with gold +0.47, with the change in the 10Y yield −0.33. The link with stocks is significant — BTC trades as a high-beta risk asset; the negative link with the dollar makes DXY a direct pressure channel.
US spot BTC ETFs: +102.7 $m on Oct 1, +185.7 $m over 5 days, +2,885.8 $m over 20 days.
US spot ETH ETFs: −55.4 $m on Oct 1, −13.7 $m over 5 days, +813.2 $m over 20 days.
Stablecoins: market cap $312.7bn (+1.40 $bn over 7 days, +3.73 $bn over 30 days) — moderate issuance growth: liquidity is flowing in, but not in an impulsive way.
HTX derivatives — BTC: funding +0.0036% / 8h, OI 1,991 $m (−0.5% on the day); ETH: funding +0.0028% / 8h, OI 644 $m (−2.2% on the day); SOL: funding +0.0100% / 8h, OI 211 $m (−0.9% on the day). Median funding across 15 radar crypto instruments +0.0100% / 8h. Funding is near neutral: the move does not rely on aggressive leverage.
Fear & Greed index: 70 (greed), −4 over the week.

Dominant channels today: rates, stock-market risk appetite.

3. Crypto assets

Regime: Cautious (risk-off): pressure from rates, credit spreads, thin liquidity.

Regime: of 15 radar crypto assets, 3 are in an uptrend, 1 in a downtrend, the rest are range-bound; 10 show compressed volatility. Compression without a trend usually precedes a directional break — the direction will be set by the external impulse (rates, the dollar, flows).
Breadth: 8 of 15 rose over 24h; 5 of 14 altcoins outperformed BTC.
Rotation: BTC dominance 59.03% (+0.02 pp on the day), ETH/BTC −1.58% over 7 days. No material rotation between BTC and altcoins.
Relative strength vs BTC over 7 days: leaders — FIL +11.4 pp, ADA +8.1 pp, HYPE +4.1 pp; laggards — LINK −9.2 pp, ZEC −4.9 pp, TRX −2.2 pp.

Instrument	Price	24h	7d vs BTC	Direction · strength	Volatility	Support / resistance	24h range	Radar signal
BTC Bitcoin	85,668	+0.20%	—	◆ range ○○○	normal	84,320 / 87,000	84,938–86,687	none
ETH Ethereum	2,702.9	+0.06%	−1.6 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	2,650.0 / 2,753.0	2,678.1–2,734.0	none
SOL Solana	120.06	−0.33%	−0.9 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	119.41 / 120.94	118.82–122.02	none
DOGE Dogecoin	0.0950	−0.24%	−1.1 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	0.0943 / 0.0957	0.0937–0.0972	none
XRP XRP	1.505	+0.10%	−2.0 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	1.486 / 1.530	1.484–1.526	none
BNB BNB	782.32	−0.87%	+0.3 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	770.83 / 794.21	779.70–795.50	none
HYPE Hyperliquid	93.299	+2.91%	+4.1 pp	▲ up ●●○	normal	92.041 / 94.687	90.566–95.257	none
ZEC Zcash	1,339.3	+1.85%	−4.9 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	1,321.7 / 1,359.3	1,276.6–1,365.7	none
ADA Cardano	0.2717	+1.96%	+8.1 pp	▲ up ●●○	normal	0.2673 / 0.2757	0.2617–0.2770	none
LTC Litecoin	69.580	−0.30%	−0.4 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	68.960 / 70.800	69.030–71.750	none
SUI Sui	1.194	−1.73%	+3.6 pp	◆ range ○○○	normal	1.175 / 1.210	1.175–1.254	none
FIL Filecoin	1.184	+13.09%	+11.4 pp	▲ up ●●○	normal	1.046 / 1.204	1.046–1.204	none
TRX TRON	0.3365	+0.52%	−2.2 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	0.3358 / 0.3400	0.3345–0.3368	none
PEPE Pepe	0.0₅4332	−1.29%	+0.7 pp	◆ range ○○○	compressed	0.0₅4267 / 0.0₅4405	0.0₅4261–0.0₅4574	none
LINK Chainlink	13.842	−1.64%	−9.2 pp	▼ down ●○○	compressed	13.745 / 13.949	13.660–14.270	none
XAU Gold	4,130.9	−0.14%	—	▼ down ●●○	normal	4,113.4 / 4,194.4	4,113.4–4,176.6	none
USOIL WTI crude	89.910	−0.54%	—	◆ range ○○○	normal	88.660 / 90.660	88.560–91.250	none
BRENTOIL Brent crude	100.78	−0.92%	—	◆ range ○○○	normal	99.810 / 101.58	99.810–102.95	none

Price snapshot: 08:16 MSK (05:16 UTC), public HTX quotes. Direction — price vs EMA50/EMA200 on the hourly chart; strength — distance from EMA200 in ATR (0–3); levels — largest order-book clusters within ±4% and 24-hour extremes. “7d vs BTC” — 7-day return difference vs BTC.

Levels the committee is watching

BTC: an hourly close above 87,200 or below 84,522 (HTX) would invalidate the range scenario

4. Scenarios

Base case. Consolidation with a downside bias. BTC stays within the last day's range (84,938–86,687) and fails to settle above 87,200. While UST yields stay above 5%, the external backdrop brings no new demand; with compressed volatility, false breaks of the range are more likely than a sustained trend.

Alternative case. An hourly BTC close above 87,200 that is sustained would cancel the committee's bearish view. The most likely trigger is lower yields and a weaker dollar after macro data; confirmation would be renewed spot ETF inflows and growth in stablecoin market cap.

What would change our view:

BTC: an hourly close above 87,200 — the view shifts to neutral-positive.
DXY: a reversal below the previous close would ease some pressure; now 102.18 (+0.01%).
Spot BTC ETF flows: a sign change in the 5-day sum (now +185.7 $m) would change the assessment of institutional demand.
Stablecoins: a weekly decline in market cap (now +1.40 $bn) would signal liquidity leaving crypto.

Catalysts — today and next 24h:

Oct 6 16:05 MSK · 13:05 UTC — Fed speech: NY Fed President Williams
Oct 6 16:53 MSK · 13:53 UTC — Ethereum Glamsterdam hard fork on Sepolia testnet (epoch 353,024)
Oct 6 17:45 MSK · 14:45 UTC — Fed speech: Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman (Community Banking Research Conf.)
Oct 7 02:00 MSK · 23:00 UTC — Fed speech: Dallas Fed President Logan

Later this week:

Oct 7 17:30 MSK · 14:30 UTC — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (crude inventories, w/e 02.10)
Oct 7 21:00 MSK · 18:00 UTC — FOMC Minutes (Sep 15-16 meeting)
Oct 8 15:30 MSK · 12:30 UTC — Initial Jobless Claims (w/e 03.10)
not earlier than Oct 9 00:25 MSK · 21:25 UTC — XRPL amendment PermissionDelegationV1_1 - earliest activation (if >=80% support holds)
not earlier than Oct 9 17:12 MSK · 14:12 UTC — XRPL amendment fixBatchV1_2 - earliest activation (if >=80% support holds)
not earlier than Oct 9 17:46 MSK · 14:46 UTC — XRPL amendment BatchV1_1 - earliest activation (if >=80% support holds)
Oct 9 20:00 MSK · 17:00 UTC — Baker Hughes US rig count

Risks of the day:

Rates: the 10-year UST yield is 5.32% — above 5%. Tight financial conditions weigh on risk assets; the reaction to macro data may be sharp.
Credit spreads are widening — a sign of falling risk appetite.
Thin liquidity: higher risk of false breakouts, slippage and sharp sell-offs.
Volatility window around the release of “Fed speech: NY Fed President Williams”: 15:50–16:35 MSK (12:50–13:35 UTC).
Volatility window around the release of “Fed speech: Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman (Community Banking Research Conf.)”: 17:30–18:15 MSK (14:30–15:15 UTC).
Volatility window around the release of “Fed speech: Dallas Fed President Logan”: 01:45–02:30 MSK (22:45–23:30 UTC).
The committee sees an hourly BTC close below 84,522 as a sign of a structural break.

5. Verification: forecast track record

Published: 2 · Checked: 1 · Correct: 1

The hit rate will appear after 20 checked statements. Only statements from public issues count (since October 5, 2026); each is recorded at publication with a condition, deadline and data source and checked automatically against public HTX prices and FRED data, with no cherry-picking or manual edits.

✅ BTC will not post an hourly close above 86,964 from Oct 5 12:00 to Oct 6 08:40 MSK (the committee's bearish scenario will not be invalidated).

This material is for information and research purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice, an offer or a solicitation to trade. Trading crypto assets, commodities and leveraged instruments involves high risk, including the total loss of funds. Past results and forecasts do not guarantee future returns. You make your own decisions.

Sources: public market data — HTX, OKX, CoinMarketCap, FRED, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, DefiLlama, Farside (spot ETF flows), alternative.me; economic calendar. The issue is assembled automatically from the materials of the AKSHAR GROUP research committee's morning session (08:00–08:40 MSK); all figures are as of the session, “n/a” means no verified source. The committee's written commentary is published in the Russian edition only.